DeVivo: How I'd play Saratoga for Saturday, Aug. 1
I’m in agreement with colleague Mike Watchmaker that the middle of Saturday’s program at Saratoga is a good place to locate live longshots. I will use a slightly different pick three sequence, however, beginning with race 6, and a few different horses.
Race 6: My keys in this difficult turf route are OVERCONTROL (#4, 6-1) and LONE TRADER (#9, 8-1). Overcontrol tries turf for the first time while making his first start since January. Note that Todd Pletcher is 2 for 7 with 3-year-olds making their turf debut after long absences, including a 2-for-4 record at Saratoga. Lone Trader goes from seven furlongs to a mile for Mike Hushion, whose record with 3-year-old turf runners going from sprints to routes while returning in less than 30 days is 3 for 7 with a high $4.78 return on investment. As a backup, I’m using longshot CURLINO (#1, 12-1), another first-time turfer. His trainer, Mark Casse, shows a 4-for-16 record with $3.28 ROI with 3-year-olds trying turf routes after a layoff of 61 to 180 days
Race 7: This second leg of the pick three, a first-level allowance on turf at 1 3/16 miles, is equally difficult, which is why I’m going five deep. GO AROUND (#5, 9-2) and REQUEST (#9, 4-1) are the prime plays. Go Around is a 3-year-old challenging older horses, an angle that Bill Mott shows 4-for-9 success with a $4.53 ROI in turf routes at Saratoga. Request just missed in a similar race last time out at Belmont in late June. Note that Chad Brown is 5 for 13 with horses in the money last time out returning after a break of 31 to 60 days in turf route allowances at Saratoga. My ‘B’ plays are the second Mott-trained horse, ORANGE GROVE (#3, 6-1) and last-out maiden winners GENEROUS KITTEN (#1, 15-1) and FIRE AWAY (#2, 5-1). Both come from barns that do well with maiden winners back following a layoff of 31 to 60 days in turf routes.
Race 8: I’m using logical favorite ROCK FALL (#3, 2-1) and THE BIG BEAST (#6, 4-1), who is 2 for 2 at Saratoga, including last year’s Grade 1 King’s Bishop, and may get an ideal stalking trip in the final leg of the sequence in the Alfred Vanderbilt.
Here is the link for the wager using DRF mobile Ticketmaker: