Despite odds, Kyprios no lock to win a second Gold Cup

North America has no real racing program for turf stayers, horses that want to run 1 3/4 miles or longer, and that is why the Thursday Gold Cup Day program each year at Royal Ascot holds less interest on the west side of the Atlantic than the east. The lone Group 1 on the card, it is contested at 2 1/2 miles, a long race even by European staying standards.

The Gold Cup is a long race with a long history.

Gold Cup records date to 1807, and only two world wars and epic downpours in 1964 kept it off the calendar. Bizarre became the first repeat winner in 1824-25, Sagarro between 1975-77 the first three-peater, and in recent Gold Cup history, consecutive wins have become commonplace: Yeats won four in a row starting in 2006, Stradivarius three straight from 2018-20.

But in two-plus centuries of Gold Cups, no horse has won the race in non-consecutive years, yet Kyprios, even before final declarations Tuesday, was an odds-on favorite to do just that.

Some measure of logic motivates such a short price – but only some. Kyprios, a 6-year-old trained by Aidan O’Brien, has gone 2 for 2 at 2 1/2 miles, winning the 2022 Gold Cup by a half-length on firm going, and later that season the Group 1 Prix du Cadran by 20 lengths over very soft ground. Kyprios did not race for nearly a year following the Cadran. Twice last fall, he ran well in defeat, and while Kyprios has won both his starts this year, he has not yet gotten back to his peak ratings from 2022, though the horse doesn’t have to reach his former peak to add a 2024 Gold Cup to his 2022 tally.

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Wesley Ward has action in the opener, the Group 2 Norfolk for 2-year-olds over five furlongs, a race Ward won in 2013 with No Nay Never and in 2018 with Shang Shang Shang. His entrant Thursday, Saturday Flirt, has a chance, though not a great one.

Her lone race came April 26 at Keeneland, where Saturday Flirt, unlike many Ward babies, broke somewhat slowly before ranging up around the turn and eventually winning a 5 1/2-furlong grass maiden by 1 1/4 lengths. The margin would have been greater had Saturday Flirt not idled after making the lead, though her team turf workout June 8 at Keeneland makes one more interested in betting her workmate, Ultima Grace, in Wednesday’s Queen Mary than Saturday Flirt in the Norfolk.

O’Brien trains the strong Norfolk favorite, Whistlejacket, who lost his debut at even money, likely because of heavy ground, before scoring a second-out win at The Curragh by nearly four lengths. Whistlejacket led in both starts, a compact powder keg ready to explode when jockey Ryan Moore gave the colt his head.

Diamond Rain holds favoritism in the Group 2 Ribblesdale, a 1 1/2-mile contest for 3-year-old fillies, her short price probably merited. The Godolphin homebred trained by Charlie Appleby has started her career with two wins, and while her listed stakes victory May 18 at Newbury came at the expense of only four foes, the competition appeared to be strong for the level.

Diamond Rain raced somewhat greenly after jockey William Buick went to his crop, but once leveling out through the final half-furlong finished with a flourish. Diamond Rain has yet to race beyond 1 1/4 miles but is a leggy filly with scope, and her dam, Dancing Rain, was a Group 2 winner over 1 1/2 miles.

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