Despite lack of seven-figure horse, Keeneland January sale ends with solid numbers

LEXINGTON, Ky. - This year's Keeneland January horses of all ages sale faced a high bar. Last year's renewal was fueled by the sale of Kentucky Oaks winner and champion Abel Tasman, who brought a record-tying $5 million to power double-digit gains in the sale's economic indicators, including a record average price. While this year's renewal of the mixed auction lacked the star power to provide those fireworks, it did put forward a strong supplemental catalog of broodmares just prior to the start of breeding season, and enjoyed a competitive market for yearlings. The sale concluded with figures that compared well, in context, with other recent editions of the sale.

"To me, you take one horse out from 2019, and 2020 looks remarkably like '19," said Bob Elliston, Keeneland's vice president of racing and sales. "You take Abel Tasman out, she was the $5-million-dollar purchase which generated an excess of 10 percent of our total gross last year. You take her out, and the numbers are relatively similar. I think the underpinnings of that are very similar, and that is, you've got a nice mare, people are gonna pay good money for that nice mare. You've got a nice short yearling, a good-looking horse with a precocious young sire, they're gonna pay good money for that. If you can't check all the boxes, it's a little more difficult, and I think that speaks to the sales environment in this day and age. Generally, we're very pleased with a solid January. It would have been nice to have an Abel Tasman, it would have been nice to have a dispersal, but those things are not assured when you open the entry box for these sales.”

Keeneland reported 1,106 horses sold at the close of the five-day auction, including private transactions, for gross receipts of $42,480,500. Last year's four-day sale finished with 951 horses sold for $48,280,100. Despite offering more horses, the buyback rate showed only moderate change, finishing at 21 percent compared to 19 percent.

"We're just a couple points off the clearance rate here," Elliston said. "We had more offerings, and if you look at the RNA rate, it's not dissimilar to last year. That speaks to still getting horses sold, and the averages are being maintained."

The January sale's average price finished at $38,409 - a decline of 24 percent from $50,768 in 2019. However, removing Abel Tasman from the mix, the 2019 average would have been $45,558. The prior three editions of the January sale, from 2016 to 2018, averaged $33,392, $29,992, and $38,146, respectively.

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The median price finished at $14,000, a drop of 30 percent compared with the strong $20,000 in 2019. The three prior editions of the sale checked in at $11,000, $11,000, and $12,000, respectively.

The figures were solid despite restraint at the upper end of the market. The 2020 sale did not produce a seven-figure horse, the seventh time since 2000 that that threshold has not been met. The sale also did not have a horse sell for more than $700,000, the first time since 2003 that the auction failed to crack that ceiling. However, helping to bolster the numbers, there was strong demand for quality mares added to the catalog late as supplemental entries, some able to capitalize on recent results from their offspring. The overall sale leaderboard was topped by the young broodmare prospects Enaya Alrabb and Confidently, both sold to bloodstock agent James Schenck for $640,000 and $560,000, respectively. Inflamed, the dam of Eclipse Award finalist Mo Forza, sold for $525,000 to Shadai Farm of Japan, and multiple graded stakes winner Pomeroys Pistol, dam of Kentucky Derby hopeful Thousand Words, at $475,000 to bloodstock agent Mike Ryan. All except for Confidently emerged from the supplemental catalog.

Enaya Alrabb, an Uncle Mo filly consigned as a broodmare prospect by Paramount Sales, as agent, won just once from four starts before being sidelined by injury, but kept outstanding company. In the filly's third start, she finished second in the Grade 1 Starlet Stakes, edged just a head by Chasing Yesterday. She then finished second in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes Stakes, beaten three-quarters of a length by multiple Grade 1 winner Bellafina.

“She was a lovely filly," Pat Costello of Paramount Sales said. "That was on the top end, but she was lovely, she didn’t turn a hair, and she was a great racehorse. We were delighted, the owners are delighted."

Enaya Alrabb is out of the Grade 2-placed stakes winner Lotta Rhythm, who also produced Grade 3-placed Hattaash. The Rhythm mare is a half-sister to stakes winners High Blues and Lotta Kim. Lotta Kim is the dam of Horse of the Year and Hall of Fame racemare Rachel Alexandra, as well as Grade 3-placed Dolphus and stakes-placed Wooderson.

Rachel Alexandra further showed the ability of this female family to produce through the generations when she became the dam of Grade 1 winner Rachel's Valentina. Another of Lotta Rhythm's half-sisters, No Blues Today, is the dam of stakes winner Big Blue Caboose.

Confidently, who was offered as a racing or broodmare prospect, sold to Schenck from the consignment of Glen Hill Farm. Glen Hill, which also sold Inflamed, is returning to the ranks of consignors after routinely offering stock through other consignors in recent years at the major Kentucky auctions.

Confidently, a winning War Front filly, is out of the stakes-placed Arch mare Playa Maya, making her a half-sister to Eclipse Award champion juvenile and young classic sire Uncle Mo.

Confidently is also a full sister to multiple group stakes-placed Could It Be Love, who finished second in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Further boosting Confidently's stock, one of her half-sisters, Grosse Pointe Anne, is the dam of stakes-placed Indian Annie.

"We thought about breeding her and maybe selling her in November," Glen Hill president and COO Craig Bernick said. "But when I’m buying a horse myself, a lot of times I like to pick out the stallions. I thought whoever bought her would breed her to who they wanted to. When you get to November, you have to make sure they like the covering sire and so on. So I thought this was a good place to sell her."

Inflamed, the dam of Eclipse Award outstanding male turf horse finalist Mo Forza, represented a quick turnaround for Glen Hill, which purchased her for $170,000 at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale. At the time, Mo Forza had won the Grade 2 Twilight Derby. He followed up by winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby and Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile, boosting his own stock and that of his dam. The 10-year-old Unusual Heat mare, who is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Burns and Grade 1-placed Brushburn, is in foal to Tapiture, among last year's leading freshman sires by winners.

"Mo Forza is a turf horse, and in Japanese racing, turf is the main track," Shadai representative Naohiro Hosoda said. "She's a proven mare. She's still young, 10 years old, and Unusual Heat is California's leading sire. His progeny are very active on fast ground, and we have the same, so that's key. I know she was sold for $170,000 in November, but her bloodstock value is going up."

Pomeroys Pistol, a multiple graded stakes winner herself, is the dam of a standout young runner in Thousand Words, a $1 million purchase at the 2018 Keeneland September yearling sale who won both his starts last year, including the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Bloodstock agent Mike Ryan purchased the mare on behalf of the owners behind another standout young runner, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner and Eclipse Award finalist Structor. He said he signed for the mare on behalf of the Kindred Stables of Jeff Drown, who owns Structor with Don Rachel.

“He wants to play at the upper end of the market with some quality mares,” Ryan said of Drown, who he said owns a handful of mares. “She’s obviously a very good mare, a brilliant racemare, and who knows how good [Thousand Words] is. She is a mare, hopefully, we can breed a couple of good ones out of.”

Pomeroys Pistol, who was best around one turn, won the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes, Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes, and Grade 3 Sugar Swirl Stakes during a productive 3-year-old campaign. She was also second in the Prioress and the Test Stakes, both Grade 1 events, during that campaign.

There was also solid competition for yearlings at Keeneland January. The top price from that category was a $400,000 Uncle Mo colt, sold to Springhouse Farm as a pinhook prospect. Pinhookers were quite active at the January sale after facing a strong market for weanlings at the major November mixed auctions.

"The foal market is phenomenal, Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland's director of sales operations, said."We got some horses in late during the November sale for January because of the strength of the November sale, because of the demand, that middle to top, end users as well as pinhookers fighting. The pinhookers told us after November they hadn't filled up their quotas yet."

The $400,000 paid for the Uncle Mo colt surpassed the $390,000 ceiling for a short yearling at the 2019 Keeneland January sale. A total of 10 yearlings sold for a quarter million or more this week, surpassing eight who met that threshold last year.

Elliston said those who spent big money on a yearling are hoping to sell them later for much more.

"Those sharpies are out there, and they know exactly what they're doing," he said.

The sale-leading colt was purchased from the consignment of Taylor Made Sales Agency, as agent. He is the second foal out of the stakes-winning Big Brown mare Red Sashay, a half-sister to Group 3 winner Shamaal Nibras and stakes winner New Edition. Graded/group stakes winners Brushed Halory, Halory Hunter, International Star, Key Lory, Prory, Seahenge, and Van Nistelrooy appear on the catalog page.

“He’s a beautiful foal, to me, the nicest foal on the grounds,” Springhouse's Gabriel Duignan said. “Uncle Mo, his sire, couldn’t be any hotter. It’s a lot of money, but he’s a great horse.”

Thanks to siring both the top mare of the sale, Enaya Alraab, and the top yearling, Uncle Mo, who stands at Coolmore's Ashford Stud, finished as the sale's leading sire by gross, with 14 horses sold for a total of $2,058,200. Claiborne Farm's War Front was the leader by average price among those with three or more lots sold, averaging $188,667 from six lots.

Schenck, whose three purchases included the top two lots, was the sale's leading buyer, spending $1,480,000, followed by fellow bloodstock agent Andre Lynch, who purchased six horses for $905,000. Taylor Made Sales Agency was the sale's leading consignor, grossing $6,009,400 from 149 horses sold - more than double the number of horses of any other consignor.