Deserving favorites not at their best distances

ARCADIA, Calif. – Conditions are less than ideal for favorites in two key California-bred races Friday at Santa Anita. Either likely favorite could win, but neither must win. Coin flip.

One mile is too short for late-runner Big Talker in the featured seventh race, an entry-level turf allowance for California-bred 3-year-olds prepping for the $150,000 Snow Chief Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on June 19.

An opposite challenge faces first-time starter Feeling Grazeful in the fourth race, a maiden sprint for California-bred fillies and mares. Feeling Grazeful is believed to be quick. The challenge is carrying her speed six furlongs first out.

The allowance typifies a handicapping quandary – the best horse is only prepping. Big Talker merely needs to finish well, and go longer next out. Similarly, Feeling Grazeful is not in a must-win situation. If she runs well and falls short, it’s something to build on.

Ultimately, it boils down to potential reward versus risk. Big Talker seems a likely favorite, having run well all three times this year. He is coming off a runner-up effort last out, more than two months ago, at the same level as Friday.

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Trainer Tim Yakteen and owner-breeder George Krikorian initially planned on running Big Talker in the $75,000 Silky Sullivan Stakes on April 25 at Golden Gate Fields.

“We were looking at using the Silky Sullivan as a stepping-stone to the Snow Chief,” Yakteen said. “Unfortunately, we drew the outside post [12 of 12]. The draw would have compromised our chances.”

Instead of shipping up, Big Talker stayed home and got lucky. The California-bred allowance filled, though he wants more than one mile.

“That’s a fair assessment,” Yakteen acknowledged. “A mile and an eighth, a mile and a quarter, is in his wheelhouse.”

Big Talker raced three times this year, all since being gelded – two seconds sandwiched around a maiden win at 1 1/8 miles, same distance as the Snow Chief. Umberto Rispoli rides Big Talker, the most likely winner Friday, rallying from behind at a mile distance that is too short.

Rivals include lightly raced Cargo, back at the distance at which he won a maiden race two back. Found My Ball is first-time long, bred for the trip. His full brother B Squared won a route stakes; full brother Ralis placed in a Grade 2 route.

One reason Big Talker remains a contender despite distance is because the field includes lots of speed. In addition to Found My Ball, others with pace include Play Chicken, Standing O, Ferrariano, and Ingest. Alpine Thunder is a longshot.

In race 4, Feeling Grazeful makes her career debut for trainer Bill Spawr and owner-breeders Jay and Julie Manoogian. Tiago Pereira has worked the daughter of Grazen, who is believed to possess speed. Based on fast works, she looks “live” first out.

Feeling Grazeful drew post 4, two stalls inside pace rival Omg It’s Jessica in post 6. The pressure will be on Feeling Grazeful. But if she runs to her works, maybe she can take the heat and be long gone. Even at six furlongs.