Derby Watch: Foreign invasion drives up demand for qualifying points

It took just 10 points to make the Kentucky Derby field in 2013, at least 20 in 2014 and 2015, and at least 30 the past two years. This is now the sixth year that Churchill Downs has utilized a points list to determine the 20-horse field for the Derby – replacing earnings in graded stakes – and the number of points required to gain entry could continue to rise, owing to more interest from overseas runners, putting several well-regarded horses based in this country in jeopardy of not making the field.

As a result, there will be plenty of scoreboard watching over the next few weeks. It already has started for trainer Keith Desormeaux, whose My Boy Jack has 32 points following his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby last Saturday. Desormeaux would prefer not to run My Boy Jack again prior to the Kentucky Derby on May 5, but he’s afraid his hand may be forced if he’s in danger of being leapfrogged.

The situation is even more acute for horses like Audible and Catholic Boy, both of whom were entered Wednesday for the Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Catholic Boy has 14 points, and Audible has 10. The Florida Derby is worth 100 points for first, 40 for second, and 20 for third. A scenario exists where, for example, Promises Fulfilled – who already has 52 points, 50 coming from his Fountain of Youth victory – wins a three-horse photo over Catholic Boy and Audible, which would put a close third-place finisher in the Florida Derby in danger of not making the cut with 30 points.

The highly regarded Justify, slated for the Arkansas Derby on April 14, is another who cannot afford a misstep in his final Derby prep, for he has no points. The Arkansas Derby has the same points value as the Florida Derby. If Justify, for instance, is a troubled third in that race, he’s likely out.

There already are 10 horses this year who have accumulated at least 40 points, and all 10 are intended for the Derby. The Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby are two of six remaining races that offer 100 points for first and 40 for second, so there is the potential for a number of additional horses to reach that 40-point level.

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The best news for horses in the low- to mid-30s would be for horses already above them to keep doing well. Otherwise, they will be overtaken by horses currently below them.

Among of the reasons the points value required to make the Derby field has risen is that spots are being carved out for overseas runners. This year, Churchill Downs added a seven-race European Road to the Derby series, which offers a berth in the Derby field to one of the top four finishers in that standalone series, similar to its standalone Japan Road to the Derby, which was inaugurated last year.

While no horse is expected to come from Japan for the second straight year – that three-race series was completed last month – there is keen interest from the European series, most notably with Gronkowski, who is scheduled to run Friday at Newcastle in the final race of the series, the Burradon. Gronkowski is tied for the most points in the series with Mendelssohn, but the tiebreaker is graded stakes earnings, and Mendelssohn, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, dwarfs Gronkowski’s earnings.

The good news for Gronkowski is that Mendelssohn is running Saturday in the United Arab Emirates Derby, giving Gronkowski a terrific chance to ascend to the top of the European points list. But that’s potentially bad news for horses in a precarious spot on the points list for the primary 35-race series, for if Mendelssohn wins the UAE Derby, he’s coming, using the 100 points gleaned from that race, and Gronkowski would come via the separate European series.

In fact, there is a scenario in which any combination of Gold Town, Mendelssohn, or Yulong Warrior run one-two in the UAE Derby – worth 100 points for first and 40 for second – and they both come via the primary series, along with Gronkowski via the European series, three spots would be taken by horses based overseas.

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Mendelssohn is taking advantage of a system in which he was able to explore two different routes to the Derby, either through the European series or the primary series, which began with the Iroquois on Sept. 16, ends with the Lexington and Arkansas Derby on April 14, and includes the UAE Derby.

The Derby field is capped at 20 runners, with up to four also-eligibles. Almost every year, there are horses high on the points list who don’t make it because they get dinged up in the final weeks leading to the Derby, after all the preps are run, and horses farther down the points list get in. But the trend of needing increasingly more points looks as though it will continue this year, making for some compelling scoreboard watching, as well as race watching, over the next few weeks.

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