Derby Watch: Baffert in driver's seat once again

ARCADIA, Calif. – Twice in the last four years and five times since 1996 Bob Baffert has trained the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

He has done it with horses who were brilliant at 2 and trained on like Silver Charm; a wiry colt who needed plenty of racing to find his best form in Real Quiet; a late acquisition like War Emblem; a champion at 2 who repeated at 3 in American Pharoah; and, in Justify last year, a horse who at this point in the calendar hadn’t even started.

Two of them, American Pharoah and Justify, went on to sweep the Triple Crown.

He is to the Derby what Bill Belichick is to the Super Bowl, the mastermind who takes the attributes of his new roster each year and gets the very best out of it. Minus the Tom Brady part.

Expectations are always high for this barn, and Baffert comes into this year’s prep season for the May 4 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs with a strong hand to play. Among Game Winner, Improbable, and Mucho Gusto, Baffert trains a trio of colts who collectively have won 10 times in 11 starts, the only loss a result of Mucho Gusto having to run against Improbable in the Los Alamitos Futurity.

No horse from another barn has ever beaten that trio. The three have seven stakes wins, four of them Grade 1 events, including a Breeders’ Cup win that nailed down an Eclipse Award for Game Winner.

Game Winner, Improbable, and Mucho Gusto are the first, second, and sixth choices on the line that Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, set for the inaugural Derby Watch top 20 for this year’s Derby.

:: Derby Watch: Privman and Watchmaker's Top 20 contenders

Mucho Gusto already has raced at 3, winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes – named for the late co-owner of Silver Charm – earlier this month. Game Winner and Improbable, both of whom are scheduled for two Derby preps this spring, are readying for their 3-year-old debuts. Both worked on Wednesday at Santa Anita, with Game Winner going five furlongs in 1:01.60 and Improbable six furlongs in 1:12.80.

Baffert said Game Winner and Improbable are under consideration for the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 9 or the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 16. One will stay here at Santa Anita, the other will travel. Mucho Gusto also is under consideration for one those spots.

Asked if this time of year is enjoyable, Baffert said, “It is if you have a good one.”

“Otherwise it’s stressful,” he said. “It’s exciting for the owners and everyone involved. You try to make the right moves and keep them all healthy.”

Last year, for instance, McKinzie was Baffert’s best Derby hope until an injury sent him to the sidelines. Fortunately for the barn, Justify was a more-than-able replacement.

Among this year’s group, Game Winner was the first of the three to get to the races, and he had the most extensive 2-year-old campaign. After winning his first start on Aug. 18 at Del Mar, he was wheeled back in two weeks and took the Del Mar Futurity, then stretched out and won the American Pharoah and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

“We backed off a little after the Breeders’ Cup, gave him some light work,” Baffert said. “He’s the kind of horse who stays in pretty good shape. You can get him ready quickly. He has speed, but he has a lot of endurance. He’s yet to come back tired.

“The most impressive thing he did was break his maiden and come right back to win the Del Mar Futurity against some nice horses. And he’s got the right style.”

Improbable was the last of the three to race, debuting at Santa Anita on Sept. 29, but he got plenty of experience in subsequent starts, shipping to Kentucky to win a small stakes race during Breeders’ Cup weekend before returning to Southern California to win the Los Alamitos Futurity. Three starts, three tracks, three wins.

“We got him later,” Baffert said. “He shipped and won, won at Los Al. He’s starting to grow now. He’s filling out. We know he’s fast.”

Like Game Winner, Improbable already owns a win at Churchill Downs.

“We can’t use that as an excuse,” Baffert said.

Mucho Gusto is “getting better,” Baffert said, after “doing the dirty work” in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He came out of the Lewis, run on an off track, “really, really good,” Baffert said.

“He’s hardy,” Baffert said. “And we know he likes the mud.”

There often are many twists and turns on the road to the Derby, and trainers know there are potholes around every corner. There’s no guarantee Baffert won’t end up on the side of the road. But right now, he’s driving this bus.