Derby points in high demand heading into final preps

There are just two more prep races for the Kentucky Derby to be run, both on Saturday, and the combination of top runners from last year holding their form, a carve out for one horse from Europe, and few defections among the leaders has raised the likely point total needed to make this year’s field.

That has forced the hand of trainer Keith Desormeaux, who will run My Boy Jack in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday to try and guarantee that his colt will have the requisite points to be in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 5. Desormeaux had said after the Louisiana Derby on March 24 that he preferred to not run again before the Kentucky Derby, but said he’d adjust pending the outcome of races the next two weekends.

Results of those races – including last Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial, whose winners vaulted past My Boy Jack on the points list – put My Boy Jack on the bubble. Since My Boy Jack can’t win it if he’s not in it, the current points list demands he run. Desormeaux on Monday said My Boy Jack would fly to Kentucky on Wednesday.

My Boy Jack has 32 points, placing him 21st on the points list for a race in which a maximum of 20 horses can run. He is two points behind Solomini, who is scheduled to run in the other final prep this weekend, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.

My Boy Jack finished third in the Louisiana Derby, a half-length behind second-place Lone Sailor. That margin – in a race worth 40 points for second and 20 for third – was the difference between My Boy Jack already being safely in the top 20 and having to run again.

The Lexington, at 1 1/16 miles, is worth 20 points for first and eight for second. My Boy Jack is seven points behind Firenze Fire, who was fourth in the Wood on Saturday, and eight behind Hofburg, the Florida Derby runner-up. A second-place finish would put My Boy Jack above both those horses on the points list. Even though he would be tied with Hofburg with 40 points, My Boy Jack would be preferred because he has more earnings in unrestricted stakes, which is the tie-breaker.

Also scheduled to run in the Lexington is Greyvitos, who has not raced since winning the Springboard Mile at Remington last December. He has 10 points, and a win in the Lexington would get him to 30, which is likely to fall below the cutoff. He is more likely a candidate for the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, on May 19.

There are several horses in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby who could thrust their way into the top 20 on Saturday, most notably Combatant, who has 22 points, and Dream Baby Dream, who has 20. The Arkansas Derby is worth 100 points for first, 40 for second, and 20 for third, so if either of those runners were to finish in the top three he would vault past Firenze Fire and Hofburg. Dream Baby Dream would have superior earnings in unrestricted stakes compared to Hofburg. Solomini basically needs to finish no worse than fourth – which is worth 10 points – to prevent being leapfrogged and pushed out of the top 20.

This is the sixth year that Churchill Downs has used a points system to determine the field for the Derby, replacing the previous system, earnings in graded stakes, and the trend in those six years has been for an increasing number of points to be needed to make the field.

This year, many of the prospects adjudged the premier Derby contenders back in January – such as Good Magic, Solomini, and Bolt d’Oro, the top three finishers from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – have largely held their form, which contributes to the points floor being raised.

There also, fortunately, have been preciously few defections among the top point earners, with McKinzie being a rare example of a horse who would have been in the field had he not suffered a setback that will keep him out of the Triple Crown.

In addition, Churchill Downs this year instituted a stand-alone seven-race European Road to the Derby series, which offered a guaranteed berth in the field to its points leader. Gronkowski emerged as the leader, and he is coming to the Derby, meaning that 19 spots remain, further contributing to those trying to qualify needing more points.