Derby Angles: Litfin on trips

Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The five-part series began with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Marcus Hersh on the impact of post position, and Brad Free’s pace projection.

Plotting the race flow of a 20-horse stampede is difficult at best, and this year’s Kentucky Derby is as complex a puzzle as any in recent memory. Major prep-race winners California Chrome, Danza, Vicar’s in Trouble and Wicked Strong all romped decisively under favorable circumstances while some in their wake weren’t as fortunate, or had ulterior motives. As well, contenders and pretenders that won or finished close up in other preps figure to have a major say in the pace, either early or late.

Looking through the prospective lineup pre-draw, here are notes, impressions and what-ifs:

Santa Anita Derby: In addition to having never raced outside Southern California, a concern regarding California Chrome is gate speed, as the flashy chestnut consistently breaks in the rear-half of the field. He was off next-to-last in the Santa Anita Derby, but was able to shift out for clear sailing and settled into a relaxed rhythm off the leader before taking control.[bc_video_id:320506:]

Hoppertunity didn’t hit top gear as quickly as the winner turning for home, perhaps by design, but widened on the remainder under only light pressure and put in a huge gallop-out. Notably, he had already picked up sufficient qualifying points prevailing over Tapiture in a roughly-run Rebel, and should move forward.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

So may Candy Boy, who hadn’t run since a well-measured win in the Robert B. Lewis eight weeks earlier, and had a useful speed sharpener while taken out of his best game. “He was up a little closer than we really wanted to be,” noted trainer John Sadler. “If the [Derby] pace is lively, I’d imagine we’d be farther back.”

Arkansas Derby: Danza came out of nowhere in his first start past seven furlongs, benefiting from good position off a moderate pace, and a rail lane at the quarter pole big enough to drive a Mack truck through.

Ride On Curlin lost considerable ground circling wide for second. He gets a switch back to Calvin Borel, who has been known to find the shortest way around at Churchill Downs.

Louisiana Derby: When the expected speed, Rise Up, instead hung a left out of the gate, Vicar’s in Trouble managed to avoid the calamitous chain reaction and inherited the front under heads-up handling from Rosie Napravnik. It also didn’t hurt their chances that Fair Grounds was in the midst of a prolonged and pronounced inside speed bias.

Intense Holiday was closer than expected despite traffic on the backstretch, bumped solidly with a rival heading into the far turn, and was cross-firing (front and rear leads not synchronized) into the stretch, ultimately veering in and striking the rail. That he still got second was a remarkable result all things considered, and as ungainly as that performance looked, he was smooth as silk working at Churchill on Sunday.

Wood Memorial: The Derby winner typically saves ground in mid-pack while not too far out of touch, avoids traffic while swinging out and gathering momentum around the final turn, and punches it in through the stretch. Given those parameters, Wicked Strong had a terrific dress rehearsal by overtaking a fast pace with a powerful finish out in the middle of the track, where “horses had been taking off all day,” as trainer Jimmy Jerkens observed afterward.

Samraat was very gutsy to come back and nose Social Inclusion for second, denying the latter crucial qualifying points.

Pace-wise, a big X-factor going forward is whether Uncle Sigh, who broke slow and ran on willingly for fifth while wide throughout, pulls a “Palace Malice” in the Derby with blinkers on first time away from Aqueduct.

Florida Derby: After three confrontations covering 25.5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park, Wildcat Red and General a Rod were separated by the grand total of less than a length. Indeed, Wildcat Red is two photos and a take-down away from a 7-for-7 record, and probably would’ve won the Florida Derby had Constitution been unable to slip through to his inside in the stretch. “[Constitution] took the rail, and that was the difference,” agreed Jose Garoffalo, who believes the Derby’s potential pacesetter can rate off the lead if the need arises, saying, “He can run a little bit from behind; he proved that when he won the Hutcheson.”[bc_video_id:319873:]

Blue Grass/Spiral: It’s been fashionable to downgrade horses coming off Polytrack preps, but results say it is wise to look for silver linings. Street Sense came off an unfavorable pace setup in the 2007 Blue Grass to win the Derby from next-to-last. In 2011, Animal Kingdom showed his last-to-first Spiral wasn’t a fluke by taking the Derby at 20-1. A $96,092 superfecta in 2012 was anchored by Blue Grass winner Dullahan (third) and Spiral winner Went the Day Well (fourth). In 2010, Blue Grass runner-up Paddy O’Prado closed for third in a sloppy Derby at 12-1.

The common thread among them all was finishing ability, which is to say Dance With Fate and Medal Count rate serious consideration to land somewhere on the board. Of all the past performance lines in this race, Dance With Fate going from 11th to first from the pace call to mid-stretch in the Blue Grass may well be the most remarkable.[bc_video_id:321184:][bc_video_id:319194:]

The bottom line: Until recently, the Derby appeared jam-packed with speed and pace-pressers. Now that horses like Bayern, Cairo Prince, Constitution, and Ring Weekend have fallen by the wayside, and Social Inclusion was still on the outside looking in at this writing, it appears decidedly less so.

Expectations are that Chitu, Vicar’s in Trouble, Uncle Sigh and Wildcat Red will be on or near the lead.

The second flight projects as some cluster of California Chrome (assuming a clean getaway), Danza, General a Rod, Samraat, and Tapiture.

When the cavalry charge sounds, stretch runners Candy Boy, Commanding Curve, Dance With Fate, Hoppertunity, Medal Count, and Wicked Strong will need plenty of racing luck.

So will we.