Derby Angles: Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure patterns

Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The five-part series began with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Marcus Hersh on the impact of post position, and Brad Free’s pace projection.

We know how many Kentucky Derby contenders have earned Beyer Speed Figures that are in the vicinity of what it will take to win the race Saturday. Knowing which horse is going to earn the winning Beyer is quite a bit more complicated.

If it was easy, we could just concede the race to California Chrome, who has the two best Beyers in the field. Certainly, the Santa Anita Derby winner is the most likely winner because of how fast he has run.

Still, you have to evaluate all the figures in the context in which they were earned. Then, you can consider how the Derby is likely to be run and how that may affect the figures of the major contenders.

Louisiana Derby winner Vicar’s in Trouble has earned Beyers of 98, 97, and 98 when on the lead or just off the lead. In his other two races, the colt got Beyers of 65 and 87. With other speed in this race, I would lean toward Vicar’s in Trouble regressing from the high-90 figures.

Wicked Strong got a 104 when he won the Wood Memorial. Was that the classic developing 3-year-old move forward in the early spring or an atypical performance not likely to be duplicated in the Derby? I would lean toward the former. Visually, it looked quite serious. The colt got the kind of pace up top in the Wood that he is likely to get in the Derby, and his 2-year-old form was excellent. His two Florida races look like the aberrations. Expect Wicked Strong to be close to or possibly exceed his Wood figure.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Samraat’s last four Beyers are 95, 94, 96, and 98 – on the lead, off the lead, fast pace, moderate pace, slow pace. Samraat has shown that he is a consistent, honest horse who will give the same effort no matter the circumstance. I would project a Derby Beyer of around 97, which will beat half the field but likely won’t get the colt on the board.

Arkansas Derby winner Danza got a solid 81 in the Saratoga Special. In his first start as a 3-year-old, he got a 79 going seven furlongs. In his first start around two turns, he absolutely blew up at Oaklawn Park, earning a 102. Was it the two turns, the trip, the rail run, Joe Bravo, maturity, all of the above? I will admit to being a bit perplexed and don’t really feel comfortable making a Danza Beyer projection.

Hoppertunity got a 100 when he won the Rebel Stakes and a 98 when second to California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby. Bob Baffert obviously knows how to win the Derby, so I give extra credit to the trainer here. Expect Hoppertunity to be at his absolute best, which could get him in the 105 Beyer range.

California Chrome has much going for him beyond the superior figures. He is a two-way horse. He can win on the lead or just off it. I am convinced that he also can win if he is, say, fifth coming out of the first turn, four or five lengths off the lead. In fact, if they are going fast enough up top, California Chrome could do a Barbaro under those circumstances and hit 110 or more on the Beyer scale.

Bottom line: The Beyer figures tell a history. Our task is to interpret them, imagine how the race might be run, and then project what is most likely to happen.