Derby Angles: Illman on pedigree

Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The five-part series begins with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Marcus Hersh on the impact of post position, and Brad Free’s pace projection.

Dosage index. Center of distribution. Dual qualifiers. Crosses and nicks. Paternal sire lines. Female families. Average winning distance statistics. Tomlinson Distance Ratings. The Rasmussen Factor.

It’s enough to make your head spin, and those are only some of the pedigree angles that many handicappers use to make their selections for the Kentucky Derby.

Horseplayers tend to overanalyze the Derby because, well, it’s the Derby. We all want to pick the winner of America’s most famous race, and we’ll attempt to learn every scrap of information concerning each of the Derby entrants from now until the band begins playing “My Old Kentucky Home.” What did Danza have for breakfast this morning? Was it the same meal Todd Pletcher gave to Super Saver four days out?

Before you get too bogged down in each aspirant’s pedigree going back six generations looking for that one nugget that will point you in the direction of the winner’s circle, take a step back, breathe deeply, and realize that working smart is sometimes better than working hard. A dash of common sense, coupled with visual observations, should separate the wheat from the chaff as it pertains to 3-year-olds capable of succeeding at this demanding 1 1/4-mile distance.

My first piece of advice is to not be a pedigree snob. I’m telling you this from experience, as I’m a recovering pedigree snob. It would be nice if they were all by A.P. Indy out of blueblood families, but they’re not. In last year’s Del Mar Futurity, I noticed a colt that was compromised by all kinds of stretch trouble. That’s my Derby horse, I thought to myself, ready to plunk down a future bet. Just let me check his pedigree. Lucky Pulpit? Out of a Not For Love mare? Sin! Sacrilege! That’s not a Derby pedigree! Needless to say, I didn’t make a future wager on California Chrome last fall. And I haven’t slept since he started winning races by the length of the stretch.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

We’ll get to California Chrome in a bit, but let’s take a look at three Derby contenders that appear fairly logical from a pedigree standpoint:

Intense Holiday: His sire, Harlan’s Holiday, was a fantastic 1 1/8-mile horse, winning the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Pennsylvania Derby, and Donn Handicap at that trip. He couldn’t get over the hump at 1 1/4 miles, but he did finish second in the Hollywood Gold Cup and Dubai World Cup at that distance. His unplaced dam, Intensify, is a half-sister to Crafty Shaw, a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. Intense Holiday’s grinding style coupled with his pedigree indicates that this distance is within his scope.

Hoppertunity: His sire, Any Given Saturday, won the Grade 1 Haskell at 1 1/8 miles with a 113 Beyer Speed Figure over Hard Spun and Curlin, while his dam, Refugee, finished a close third in the 1 1/2-mile, Grade 2 Orchid Handicap on turf, and has been a prolific producer (multiple Grade 1 winner Executiveprivilege, multiple stakes-placed Profit). Hoppertunity’s third dam is the legendary Filly Triple Crown heroine Davona Dale, a mare that adds class and stamina to the pedigree.

Candy Boy: His sire, Candy Ride, might be best remembered for his 123-Beyer tour de force in the 1 1/4-mile, Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar. His dam, She’s an Eleven, was a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles, but the female family is filled with speed influences. I have a feeling, however, that Candy Boy, like Intense Holiday, is a grinding sort that can last this trip.

There also are plenty of question marks in the race. What to do with Chitu, Wildcat Red, and Ride On Curlin? Chitu and Wildcat Red are by stone-cold sprinters, but their dams both won at 1 1/4 miles on grass. Conversely, Ride On Curlin’s sire handled 1 1/4 miles without any fuss, but his first two dams were quick ones that excelled at shorter journeys. In this case, I think you have to look at the individual horse’s running style and overall form. Chitu has won at 1 1/8 miles, but he was locked in a stagger-fest for the final three-eighths of the Sunland Derby with a distance-challenged rival. Wildcat Red has shown heart and grit, but his win around two turns came on the lead over an intensely speed-favoring track. Ride On Curlin may handle the Derby distance better than the other two, but he seems like more of a middle-distance type than a true classic contender.

How about We Miss Artie? His sire and dam both were excellent at 1 1/8 miles on turf. We Miss Artie, thus far, has shown an affinity for grass and Polytrack. He must prove that he’s built for dirt.

Uncle Sigh has some stamina in his pedigree, but he acts like more of a middle-distance horse. His preferred running style, racing close to the pace, could be a hindrance if there are other speed horses intent on the lead.

As for California Chrome, it’s safe to say that he’s the best horse and that he’s outrun his pedigree already. His sire, Lucky Pulpit, didn’t win past 5 1/2 furlongs. Her dam, Love the Chase, scored at a flat mile. True, there is some stamina deep in the female family, but I’m sure not many people were expecting him to roar into Louisville as the Derby favorite based solely off his bloodlines. Toss him at your own peril in multiple-race wagers, but if you feel that his pedigree isn’t worth a short win mutuel, don’t be afraid to seek others. Remember the old adage: Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time. Historically, 1 1/4 miles separates the men from the boys.