Derby Angles: Free on pace

Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The five-part series began with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Marcus Hersh on the impact of post position, and Brad Free’s pace projection.

The probability of a swift pace in the Kentucky Derby is strong, with six speed horses trying to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles. Which horse makes the lead? It could be any of those listed below.

Vicar’s in Trouble (post 1) was a gate-to-wire winner of his final prep. From his inside draw, his hand is forced. He must use speed to establish position. That is one speed horse.

Uncle Sigh (post 3) was a presser before breaking slowly and misfiring in the Wood. With the addition of blinkers and aggressive training, it is likely he will revert to an upfront style. From where he is drawn, he must go. Two speeds.

California Chrome (post 5) put his tactical speed to proper use this winter at Santa Anita, allowing him to benefit from the bias. Though he might not require the lead, it is crucial for California Chrome to break well and establish position early. Speed horse No. 3.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY: Posts, odds, and comments

General a Rod (post 8) has options that the three speedsters to his inside do not. General a Rod is drawn near the middle of the field and could tuck into a cozy trip right behind the leaders. Yet his running lines are a collection of 1-2-3s. He will push it early. Four speeds.

Wildcat Red (post 10) set the pace in both routes this winter at Gulfstream. Think he will change strategy here? Of course he will not. Five speeds.

Chitu (post 12, program No. 13) is a California front-runner who has never been positioned farther back than second. Another front-runner – that makes six.

The pace of the Kentucky Derby comes up fast, most of the time. The seven front-runners/pressers listed above make it likely that history will repeat.

Even the speed types that do not make the lead due to a slow start or early traffic will be hustled into contention. Pace “pressure” also comes from behind. There are too many horses with similar running styles to expect anything other than a hot, contested pace.

Furthermore, the field includes others with midpack styles. Danza, Samraat, and Tapiture will be within striking range, “pressing the pace” from the second flight. Those three are likely to be among the first to attack when the pace collapses.

That makes 9 of the 19 starters that habitually run near the front or within proximity. Due to the sheer number of horses with speed, Kentucky Derby 2014 has meltdown written all over it.

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Which horses benefit most from the pace scenario? If the race unfolds as expected, 10 stretch-runners will have a fair opportunity.

Those that fit “deep closer” description are Harry’s Holiday, We Miss Artie, Dance With Fate, Medal Count, Intense Holiday, Commanding Curve, Candy Boy, Ride On Curlin, and Wicked Strong.

Based on the probability of a swift pace, the Derby winner should be among that group.