Depiction could provide value in Caesars Handicap

There’s much to be unsure about in the Caesars Handicap, one of two $150,000 turf miles Wednesday at Horseshoe Indianapolis. But this much is certain: If Depiction is close to his 20-1 morning-line odds, he’s worth a bet.

Unfortunately, Depiction figures half that price at best. He’s one of nine 3-year-olds in the Caesars, designated as a handicap to skirt a ban on Lasix in stakes races at participating North American tracks. The weight spread among the entrants is minimal.

The morning line has Twirling Point the 5-2 Caesars favorite. Seems unlikely. Twirling Point wintered at Santa Anita and was a modest third in the $100,000 Eddie Logan Stakes, before controlling the pace and capturing a first-level allowance going a mile on turf. His stronger claim runs through Trikari, who won the Rushaway over Turfway’s Tapeta surface – a race in which Twirling Point was a close, closing third – and came back with a sharp score in the American Turf on Kentucky Derby Day.

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Molly’s Town, an Indiana-bred, will set the pace. Molly’s Town easily won his four Horseshoe Indianapolis starts at age 2, including a dirt route, and he returned from a winter break April 9 to blast first-level dirt sprint allowance foes – including older rivals – by nearly eight lengths, earning a flashy 96 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s by Mo Town, an eight percent turf-route sire, and out of an unraced Curlin mare. The pedigree leans dirt and trainer Genaro Garcia is 1 for 50 the last five years with first-time turfers.

Oscar’s World and Aspenite should race closest to Molly’s Town. Aspenite won a Kentucky Downs turf mile last summer but contested turf sprints in his last four starts. Trainer Steve Asmussen ends a one-race blinkers experiment in the Caesars.

Oscar’s World rates a stronger chance. After three good races in Florida, two on turf, one on Tapeta, Oscar’s World was a fading 11th last out in the Transylvania at Keeneland, beaten only 5 1/2 lengths under Luis Saez.

“Luis said going into the far turn he took a bit of a bump, lost his hind end, and never got back into the race,” trainer Brian Lynch said. “Put a line through it and move on.”

First World War finished ninth, beaten three lengths, in the Transylvania but ran flat in the stretch with no apparent excuse and might have hit a form plateau. Not so with Depiction, who was seventh in the Transylvania.

Depiction didn’t have a great trip last fall at Keeneland in the Bourbon, finishing a close sixth after showing late spark once extricated from traffic. He also finished with interest when third in the Dania Beach at Gulfstream and ran his best race in the Transylvania, his first start in blinkers. Squeezed a bit at the start from an outside draw, Depiction quickly was dragged back to last of 12 behind a moderate tempo, and after being unleashed at the top of the stretch, he finished fastest while looking like a horse who’d physically matured since last fall. Depiction has more positional pace than he showed at Keeneland and can put it to good use Wednesday.

Pounce needs firm turf

As good as Pounce was winning consecutive turf races in February and March in Florida, she was equally bad checking in 11th last month as the favorite in the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland.

The filly who showed up at Gulfstream stands a strong chance Wednesday in the $150,000 Horseshoe Indianapolis for 3-year-old fillies. The one who ran at Keeneland, not so much.

Pounce did get stuck wide without cover on the Appalachian’s first turn, but after a stalking trip, she came up empty in the homestretch. To trainer Mark Casse, the explanation is clear.

“Soft turf,” said Casse, who had Pounce entered in the Edgewood Stakes at Churchill earlier this month. “That’s why I scratched her out of the Edgewood, and why I would scratch her again on Wednesday.”

There’s a good chance of rain Tuesday night, less so Wednesday. If Pounce runs, she’s the likely favorite under Javier Castellano.

“Javier said he was in trouble from the start last time. Never at any point did she feel comfortable,” Casse said.

An overflow field of 18 was entered in the Horseshoe Indianapolis. A dozen can run and at least one also-eligible will make the gate since Nice as Pie raced Saturday.

Neom Beach stands a decent chance if a busy Oaklawn Park meet hasn’t caught up with her. Neom Beach ran five times at Oaklawn, most recently beaten a head April 20 in the $200,000 Valley of the Vapors. She’s probably more capable on turf than her lone start on the surface suggests. Neom Beach stumbled and was bumped at the start of that Saratoga turf sprint and since has shown she can route.

French import Voodoo Magic, unrealistically listed at 30-1 on the morning line, didn’t disgrace herself last fall in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. Her lone American start came Feb. 11, turf sprinting at Santa Anita, where the filly couldn’t keep up with a swift pace and was beaten before the turn.

◗ A pair of $100,000 Indiana sire stakes bookend the turf miles.

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