Del Mar: Daily Gameplan for Friday, July 18

Race 1

Suite One

Daughter of multiple graded stakes winner Circular Quay shows five consecutive gate drills leading one to wonder if she has some issues breaking; sire banked $1.5 million in his career but progeny are 0 for 7 as 2YOs on synthetic over the past five years; dam banked $122K in her career and her offspring are a combined 12 for 89 to date; O'Neill is 2 for 21 over the past two years with 2YOs in maiden claimers at Del Mar.

Yes She's a Dancer

Backers need to hope the drop in class wakes this miss up, as she hasn't done much running in any of her efforts to date; sire hits at 9% with juvenile sprinters on synthetic over the past five years; this is the only foal out of dam who went 0 for 1 in her career; tread lightly.

Champion Risk

Sire Bluegrass Cat won G2 Nashua and Remsen as 2YO, G1 Haskell at 3; his juveniles are 89 of 707 over the past five years; dam She's Extreme went 4 for 24 over the course of her career and was 1 of 6 on synthetic; this is her only foal to date; O'Neill is only 2 for 33 over the past three years with second time starters dropping from MSW into MCL.

Lamist

Sire was a beast on the lawn, winning 9 of 13 and earning $1.6 million in the process; dam Reamidst was 2 for 10 in her career, with a top Beyer of 67; trainer Cerin has nice numbers over the past five years when it comes to horses dropping from MSW to MCL and switching from turf to synthetic (3 for 9, 6 ITM, $2.46 ROI).

I Heart You

Daughter of Harlan's Holiday goes out for always formidable team of Bejarano/Hollendorfer; sire banked $3.6 million over the course of his career; his juveniles are 126 for 753 over the past five years; dam was a graded stakes winner routing on dirt and on turf, but her offspring are 0 for 15 on synthetic to date.

Motor'n Mona

New sire Discreetly Mine was successful sprinter on dirt (G1 King's Bishop winner as 3YO); his only runner to date to run on synthetic won; dam Sierra Sweetie was very successful on the track, winning stakes both sprinting and routing and earning $316K in the process; Bonde's numbers with second time starters going MSW to MCL are huge over the past three years (5 for 12, $4.10 ROI) - interesting.

Vow Me Over

Broken Vow is 14 for 65 over the past five years with 2 year old synthetic sprinters; dam Over Andover went 1 of 4 in her career, earning $53K with a career best Beyer of 84; trainer Glatt is 3 for 23 over the past two years with first time starters debuting in maiden claimers. - Matt Bernier

Race 2

Macho Sox

Debuts for Cerin who the past five years has an 11 percent strike rate with horses debuting in maiden claiming races; Macho Uno 12 percent with first-time starters; 4-year-old is the first foal out of a stakes-placed mare that won going long on turf and dirt at Pimlico; works are decent but he could make some noise if he leaves there running.

Concert Man

6-year-old has been working okay for his return but the past five years his trainer is 0/25 with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more; he didn't fire when he came back from a longer layoff last year and his best race came on dirt at Pleasanton; looking elsewhere.

Vite Tribal Reign

He hasn't made much of an impact in his first three starts on dirt and he would have to improve dramatically in his first try on Polytrack to make an impact; one of his sibs, Ces't Mark, won a stakes here on dirt, and a couple sibs won on synthetics; nonetheless, others look more attractive.

Forest Romance

Debut was okay and it would have been better if he had left the starting gate a bit better; horse that finished second came back to win a $3.5K maiden claimer at Los Al with a 44 Beyer Speed Figure; claimed by Sadler who the past five years has a 30 percent strike rate running them back the first time; nice work out of the gate here July 14 adds to his appeal; don't sell short.

Slick Caper

He was having problems leaving the starting gate early in his career but he got off to a good start when he finished second at a huge price in his latest at Los Al; blinkers go on and that has been a profitable move for the barn lately; he could also be coming up to a peak effort in his third start for Treece; consider for the exotics.

Gospel Music

The 79 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for finishing second at Santa Anita at this level in his first start after being claimed by Miller stands out, and anything close easily wins this; he ran well when he debuted over Tapeta at Golden Gate in Jan. so we'll assume he will be fine running over Polytrack for the first time; all three sibs are winners; the pick.

Sorcerors Brew

First-timer is by Grade 3 winner Snorter who won and hasn't had a debut winner from eight starters; dam won a couple of routes; lone sib to race went unplaced in two starts in Japan; since 2010 the barn is 0/13 with first-time starters; not likely.

Smokey's Legacy

Homebred is by Slew City Slew who is 53/748 ( 7%) with first-time starters; this is the first foal out of a mare that ran twice, finishing second in her debut and then winning her second start as a 2-year-old; the past five years Hess has a 10 percent strike rate with horses debuting in maiden claiming races; works on the slow side but at least he's had one over this surface; bottom half of the exotics? - Randy Goulding

Race 3

Kessabtsi

Two for 40 is a tough number to bet into no matter how you slice it; life and death for the win vs. winners and he was losing ground that day going a shorter trip; gelding has the 2 races to draw from now but he has been out of the money in 3 of 4 of late when he broke from the rail; passing.

Frensham

Connections have always had confidence in this racer; they tried the stakes as a maiden and this is his easiest spot since graduating; backers can point to fact one sibling won on grass once; don't ignore.

Indygo Andy

It can't be easy moving up a horse from Sadler; finally off the rail, he had an eventful trip in last but is not a stranger when it comes to bad trips; would be careful here.

Boozer

Brings legit speed but there are others, including Glitter of Silver, who may have designs on the lead; all the siblings were sprint only but note this runner was inching toward the winner in the 2013 route finale; drill a week ago screams off the page; long gone?

Benba

His hand may have been forced a bit when he drew the rail in last; note runner was over 3 clear two back and he should be able to get the trip although he may have to track early today; in clever hands, don't sell too short.

Bold Fantasy

Fully extended in last when place horse was nearly 4 clear; nice move at Anita since, but we really don't know how much the maiden breaker may have taken out of him; sire took the Pacific Classic here, but dam was unraced, this is her first to go; could find these waters too steep.

Short Heat Wave

Unusual Heat about 12% with first-time grass runners in a 382-horse study; sire won debut going short in Europe, won multiple stakes, was Group 3 placed, was 6 for 16, earned over 140 grand, all on grass; dam was unraced; one of 3 siblings won; that racer, Short Route, took a Grade 3, won 3 of 12, earned over $200K, lost only turf out; out to prove 35-1 shocker was no fluke.

Pressure Time

At least he has the experience vs. winners now; dam was unraced and the two siblings were successful sprinters and were never sent long; must find a way to turn the tables on Boozer among others.

Eddie's Turn

Homebred has been carefully placed and if you figure he needed the last, then there is room for a move forward; he's trained fast since the last effort; dam won long at this very distance on grass and this is her first to roll; miss looks live.

The Mad Hungarian

Gelding got good for about 5 weeks early in the year; totally overmatched in last and only a brief threat in the grass debut; trainer has spotted them fine this year with limited starters; needs a rebound run.

Glitter of Silver

Maybe he just wanted grass all along; he brings :44 and change speed to the party but will have to hurry to clear; best of 41 spin on the 3rd is eye-catching; sharp and far too dangerous to ignore.

Volkonsky

Return drills are ideally spaced; he seemed in the right spot last time but just never fired; fact he graduated on course could be important at crunch time; the winner 4/26 has been 3rd and 5th since; should be rolling hard down the middle of the course late.

Deraptor

He beat 5 for the win and has been handled by a couple of today's foes; Desormeaux got a chance to figure him out but runner could be compromised by the post if the scratches are kind; needs very best.

Unusual Taste

Hung wide in the debut, looked professional in the victory; winner 6/7 repeated in a $40K starter with an 83 Beyer; he was inching away in last and that bodes well at this longer trip; probably needs to improve to repeat. - Brian Mulligan

Race 4

Spot Play

PIONEER CHARLIE (#8, 4-1) was freshened after essentially getting eased last out at Fair Grounds; but he shows a steady diet of works at Arlington on Polytrack, suggesting trainer Mike Stidham is pleased with him; that also explains the cross-country to ship to base at Del Mar this summer when he could have stayed put in Chicago. -Byron King

Tribal Dude

Certainly one of the classiest runners in this race, and capable of running Beyers in the 70s, too; gets blinkers added back after a disappointing run Jun. 28 when they were taken off; quite capable if he takes to the synthetic, though his one start on an all-weather track resulted in a last-place finish at 3-1 odds at Hollywood on the Cushion Track.

Salt Power

Owns weak figures and hasn't run since last August at Del Mar; a layoff like that is not easily overcome; owns mediocre Beyers in the 40s; let's see a comeback race from this one.

Lay It On

Hard to get excited about this one given his form; he has been soundly beaten in all of his starts; has stayed competitive for 4f or so in his last two starts but has still lost by large margins; another thumping appears in order unless he moves way up on Poly.

Distinct Asset

Quite aggressively spotted considering how much improvement he showed in his last start; connections still must be concerned about his finishing ability because he is obviously quite fast; nevertheless, he owns the top last-race Beyer, a 78, which gives him a significant edge - and of course it came against better maiden 50K stock.

Superboot (IRE)

Improved efforts since being shifted to the grass; he ran well in those races but simply was a cut below maiden 40K competition; so this maiden 20K even suits him better; has yet to race on synthetic, but given that he has handled turf and dirt, he would seem a good candidate to take to it.

Voluntary

Has three second from eight starts and has two fourths to go along with it; handled a synthetic track earlier in his career when third on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park; he even ran a career-best Beyer on that surface, a 59; minor award expected.

Shop Forever

has speed but little staying power; even when he ran fourth two back, it took him almost 1:14 to complete 6f; would be a surprise given no Beyers above a 40 in three starts.

Pioneer Charlie

Went to the sidelines after a last-place finish at Fair Grounds in December; but look past that race and his first race was pretty good when fourth behind eventual stakes race behind Albano; Stidham must be pleased with his Poly training at Arlington to bring him to Del Mar; aggressive placement likely is perhaps partially influenced by the bonus for California shippers; choice.

Vavoom

Adds blinkers off the claim after chasing the speed and fading to fifth as the favorite last time out; although that race was a disappointment, perhaps he needed the start; also take note that he was second in a race on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Track earlier in his career; reasons to expect improvement. - Byron King

Race 5

Vulnerable Favorite

GOLDILOCKS PLANET (#3, 2-1) is the ML favorite but she hasn’t raced since Feb. 21 and she tumbles in price for her return (from $20K to $8K) and that combination is worrisome. Remember, too, they claimed her for $16K in the race prior so now they’re willing to part with her for half what they paid for her. She has run well fresh and won her only local start but the price figures dodgy what with the big drop (they don’t give anything away out here) and layoff (and you usually don’t claim a horse to run it once and then put her away for 5 months). -Michael Hammersly

Run Sophia Run

She couldn't win at Emerald Downs but she has an excellent record running over Tapeta at Golden Gate so she just might be a better horse on synthetics; she goes to a new barn and the past five years Metz has a 20 percent strike rate with new shooters; the last time she ran at Golden Gate she won a key race and a similar performance would put her in the mix here; exotics possibility at what should be a square price.

Ebo's Love

7-year-old didn't run last year and she probably needed her comeback race at Los Al on July 5; the past five years Craigmyle has a 22 percent strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff so it wouldn't be surprising to see her move forward; she didn't handle this surface the only time she ran over it, tough; prefer others.

Goldilocks Planet

She had two solid starts at Santa Anita including an easy win coming off a layoff on Jan. 19; she was claimed out of the race and in her first start for Belvoir she had a rough start but still finished third in a $20K claimer; she will appreciate the easier company, runs well fresh, and note the strong numbers showing when Perez rides for the barn; she also won over this track last year; the pick.

Julio's Gold

Looks like the one they will have to catch and she was able to take them all the way when she broke her maiden here last year; goes from turf to Poly and the past five years Miller has a 19 percent strike rate with horses going from turf to a synthetic surface; her last two were pretty ugly but she is dropping to a new low could get brave if she gets away on her own; tough call.

Eltoninadress

She just didn't fire when she ran in a $12.5 starter race at Los Alamitos and it is possible she didn't care for the surface; she certainly had solid form going into the race and if you can forgive her latest she looks like a major player in this spot; she also just missed at this level the last time she was here; can see her getting a nice trip sitting just off the very suspect Julio's Gold; playable.

One Magical Girl

She romped in her latest at Santa Anita at this level Jan 12 but we have to wonder what has taken her so long to make it back to the races; since 2012 Baltas has a 20 percent strike rate with horses returning from a layoff of 180 days or more so we'll assume she's ready to go; she also has an excellent record running over this surface; contention runs deep.

Siempre Esperanza

Another one coming off a long layoff and the past five years Periban has a 4 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a break of 180 days or more; it is hard to knock her consistency with a 3-2-6 record from 16 starts and her best races came on Cushion Track at Hollywood so she might be fine running over Poly the first time; some things to like.

Secret of Success

5-year-old is still eligible for a nonwinners of two and she has been waxed by double digits in her last three starts running in conditional claiming races; her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 62 isn't going to cut it here and she went unplaced in both of her starts running over this surface; hard to see it. - Randy Goulding

Race 6

Pure Tactics

He enters this race fresh off of a stakes win, and not only has he run well in all four of his starts in 2014, but it's encouraging to see that he's run well over turf at today's distance in the past; the rail post can be tricky at this trip, and he has to avoid falling too far out of it early on, but going to look for him to be making some noise through the lane; Smith has won with 9 of 27 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Boat Trip

Multiple stakes winner has run well in both of his starts going five furlongs over turf, and one of those starts was in a stakes over this turf course; runner up from latest won next out at SA on 2/23 going 6 1/2f over turf in a 76k stakes with a 96 Beyer, and then moved on to win a G3 going 6 1/2f over turf with a 97 Beyer.

Wine Police

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 5 of 25 starts for 405k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 61k; G1 stakes placed gelding owns a high degree of early speed and commands his share of respect in his first turf test.

Merit Man

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 19 starts for 126k, and she didn't make a start over turf; the long layoff is a concern, but this multiple stakes winner owns a good deal of natural ability and Desormeaux has won with 6 of 24 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Caracortado

Multiple graded stakes winner has only made one start since January 2012, but if he's ready for his return to action, the others will likely be left behind to battle it out over the place prize; viewing the presence of Bejarano as a positive indicator.

Artest

He has just one win in his last 15 starts, but he is a stakes winner sprinting over turf, and he's proven that he's capable of being at his best at today's five-furlong distance; leaning toward others for the top spot, but a minor award appears to be within reach.

Giant Ego

He owns a good deal of early speed and he figures to appreciate the turn back in distance for his second turf attempt; this does appear to be a tough bunch for him to be meeting up with, but his early zip helps give him some appeal.

Rosengold

Maybe there's reason to be concerned when seeing that he's had a tough time maintaining a forward gear late in his races, but he's never been entered in a five-furlong turf dash before, and this multiple stakes winner is going to be looking to take it right at this field from the bell.

Ankeny Hill

He's another in here with wild early speed who is making his first start at a distance shorter than 5 1/2f, and given an alert break, it's probably a good idea to look for him to be involved in the running throughout; runner up from latest won next out at SA on 3/6 going 1 1/8m over turf vs. 62k OPC's with a 94 Beyer.

Celzo's Birdie

Limited available data on sire with regard to his turf starters, but he was stakes placed during his career while winning two of five starts for 60k, and he didn't make a turf start; dam was winless from six starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this has to be considered a very tough assignment for his first turf start. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

Really a Princess

Filly was up on the lead up north in her debut at the Oak Tree at Pleasanton meeting last month before tiring down the lane; sire was a stakes placed sprinter on dirt; dam won 6 of 17 lifetime including 3 of 8 on synthetic; winner from debut repeated in a stake next out earning a 54 Beyer; she'll need to take a step forward, but Bonde is a sharp conditioner that can have them ready to roll.

Inspired Illusion

The field this daughter of Papa Clem defeated has to be questioned a bit; the winning Beyer of 29 in the debut isn't exactly stylish, but she did it over a synthetic surface (tapeta) and at the end of the day winning first out isn't the easiest thing to do; trainer Moger, Jr. is 1 for 9 over the past five years with last out maiden winners jumping into non-graded stakes races; make sure you're getting a price here.

Singing Kitty

Not sure what she beat, but she couldn't have been much more impressive in her debut; relaxing and passing horses can be difficult for inexperienced horses but she did so very nicely at SA last month; trainer Miyadi is 10 of 41 over the past two years with last out maiden winners, sporting an ROI of $2.43 - not without a chance.

Desert Thief

Maybe the blinkers are what did the trick for this daughter of Desert Code when she broke her maiden at Los Al earlier this month; she's taken money in all three of her starts which is encouraging; sire was a stakes winner sprinting who banked $368K in his career; sibling to a runner who won 7 of 16 on synthetic and banked $218K in his career.

Robo Girl

Gary Sherlock trained filly broke her maiden nicely in April at SA, but that race has come back weak and she backed up badly in the Landaluce over the same strip last month; sire won a G3 sprinting on synthetic in 2007; expect rider Baze to have her involved in the running from the sound of the bell.

My Fiona

Daughter of Ghostzapper has run respectably in each of her starts, but there's no denying that she's incredibly green; she was very sloppy with her lead changes in her debut victory but drew off impressively once she finally got her act together; no match for impressive winner of Landaluce at SA last month, but there's plenty of upside for this filly.

Lost Bus

Filly could not have been more impressive breaking her maiden at first asking at the end of May; Espinoza didn't move a muscle on her yet she drew off impressively before being geared down late; very professional with her lead changes; full sibling to gelding named Magoo who banked $106K; strictly the filly to beat.

Line Leader

The other Bonde entrant here has been well bet in each of her two career starts; showed speed and faded to run second in her debut behind My Fiona who she'll have to face here again today; got loose early last out and had just enough left in the tank to hold on; going to need a big step forward to get the job done here.

Take Back Spring

This filly has taken a decent amount of money in each of her three career starts, yet she's failed to do much running in any of them. She'll be running into quite a few familiar foes in here today, and that doesn't necessarily bode well for her; would seem like she's in over her head today - will most definitely need the race of her young life to even be in contention. - Matt Bernier

Race 8

Spot Play

HAZARDOUS DREAMS (#1, 5-1) broke very slowly in his turf sprint debut at SA but kept to his task well, passed a few horses and finished 6th That was an encouraging first outing. He can benefit from that experience and may well enjoy today’s longer trip. He also gets the rail so he can save ground and gets the services of top rider Bejarano. A couple smart works since that June 28 debut say he’s doing well and is ready to go. Best of all, that debut result and the presence of a few salty foes here will almost surely keep his price more than fair. -Michael Hammersly

Hazardous Dreams

Off poorly from the rail on the hill and inside on that course is a tough spot unless a racer has clearing speed; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; Bejarano enticed; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Lucky J Lane

This is a first-time gelding; Lucky J. H. 2 for 12 with first-time turfers; sire won at 2, took a Grade 3, banked nearly $650K, won thrice on grass; 10 for 30 dam won 9 times on grass, banked $140K; 2 of 3 siblings won; top earner More Champagne won twice on grass in the minor leagues; in good hands, trainer knows what to do with a good horse and the winner of the debut cashed next out in a $40K optional with a 70 Beyer; rates upset glance.

Unusually Green

Colt appears to be coming to the race right; show horse in the 2014 opener graduated next out and the winner that day repeated in a $50K optional, took the $200K Echo Eddie, and was 2nd a head in the $100K Silky Sullivan since; family includes a turf winner that banked over $600K; must be left in the exotic mix again.

Smart Journey

He did everything but get unsaddled in last; can never dismiss sub :22 speed; the sibling that won took one dirt sprint; look for rider to send hard with a theft on the agenda; Baze got a chance to figure him out; could get brave with a lonely lead.

Itsgettinhotinhere

He could have sulked after the eventful break but gelding tried hard and was coming on a bit late; SW 4 for 7 dam banked over $200K, never turfed; lone half bro Curious Spy took 3 of 16, banked 2 grand a start, lost only turf out; may need softer to shine.

Dane O Mite

Been a bad actor at the gate so far; 2 for 30 dam earned almost $140K, was grass only; 2 of 4 siblings won; both tried grass multiple times to no avail; would be very careful here.

Pyrotechnics

Beyers have been pretty consistent this year but grinder will need things to break just right; the sibling that won took 2 dirt routes; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Troy Story

Gelding has teased several times but he's also missed for a tag; 8th finisher in last took a maiden $50K claimer, place horse took a MSW and the winner repeated in a $40K starter; one positive is that a full bro won over $100K on grass; overdue to hit paydirt.

Zim N the Mailman

Homebred improved a bit in last and should move forward again; dam was 0 for 13; the one for 11 sibling that won cashed on grass; look for bug to have a big meeting at the beach after winning the riding title at Los Al when he popped with 12 of his 31 mounts for a juicy 39%.

Synnin

Tribal Rule about 15% with first-time turfers in a 181-starter survey; sire graduated as older horse, took 2 of 4, both on dirt, banked nearly $80K; stakes winning 5 for 13 dam earned over $170K; lone full sister was out of the money 3 times; considering the winner was clear, the debut was not all that bad.

Tuff Storm

Off a career Beyer and seems to be figuring it out; 2 for 15 dam earned over $100K, was turf only; one of 2 siblings won; that runner, Stormin Cee's, took 2 of 8, won on grass once, banked nearly $50K; valid player in a good betting race.

Missing Groom

Hung wide in only grass try and he was still getting to the winner late; top last-race Beyer in the resume; Elvis got a chance to figure him out and note show horse was nearly 4 clear; all systems go.

Dickery Do

Tough beat in last but he was trying till the very end; May 11 place horse took a maiden $20K claimer and then won against $25K N2L foes; far too sharp not to take seriously.

In Excessiveness

Off a career Beyer as he went with shades last time, maybe he just wanted grass all along; a half bro did win on grass once and the top kin banked nearly $250K; would really prefer to see him in for a tag at this point in time. - Brian Mulligan