EDITOR'S NOTE: The following is a free preview of Daily Racing Form's new Betting Strategies product. Betting Strategies will be available for Saturday and Sunday cards ($14.95 each) during the upcoming Del Mar and Saratoga meets.

Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis, and suggested wagers for the Saturday, July 11, 2020, card at Del Mar.

Schedule

Top 4 picks for each race on the card (Posted by 6 p.m. ET on Thursday)

Analysis of the top races on the card (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday)

Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis )Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday)

Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday)

If necessary, picks, analysis, and suggested wagers will be updated after key scratches on Saturday.

Race 1: Clm 20000

5-Foreign Protocol
4-Octopus
3-Mister McLean
6-Malakai Moxie

Race 2: Clm 50000

8-Handsome Cat
5-Shootin Money
9-Carpe Victoriam
6-Final Final

Race 3: Md 20000

2-Da Kine
7-Bigfoot City
5-Trojan Magic
4-Convex

Race 4: Md 50000

1-Sapori Girl
5-Surface
8-Constantia
10-Olive You More

Race 5: Md Sp Wt 50k

1-Hot Rod Charlie
2-Cross Indian
4-Raisebeforetheflop
4-Tripple Shake

Race 6: OC 40k/N1X

4-Duplicity
2-Psycho Dar
6-Speedy Justice
1-Distant Vista

Race 7: Clm 16000

4-Lil Sydney
8-All I Can Say
3-Rogallo
7-Mantaray Island

Race 8: WickerrB65k

9-Big Score
7-Souter
4-Voodoo song
8-Murad Khan

Race 9: Alw 50000s

3-Diva in Charge
1-Paige Runner
6-Rather Nosy
5-Buyback

Race 10: Md Sp Wt 50k

5-Nurse Goodbody
12-Sweet Devil
1-Vegas Palm
8-Red Diamond

Horseplayers betting Saturday at Del Mar will recognize some races are more appealing than others. Same with favorites – some are reliable, others not so much. And regarding a betting strategy, certain wagers make more sense than others.

The Saturday card offers legit contenders at attractive odds, vulnerable favorites to bet against, and multi-race wagers worth a shot. This blueprint, filed a day early, could be updated Saturday after track-profile analysis from the Friday meet opener is considered, in addition to late workout analyses, and possible scratches. For now, here’s the plan . . .

Race 1 (2 p.m. PT)

Face it, six-horse fields produce low returns – median $2 payoff here last summer was $6. For an “action bet,” four-time winner Foreign Protocol (5) is worth backing at program odds of 7-2, though I suspect he may go favored. Foreign Protocol won big last out; this would be trainer Quinn Howey’s first career win at Del Mar.

This claiming sprint starts the 50-cent early pick five, a 14 percent takeout wager that is the least expensive bet on the menu. The pick five ticket recommendation is guaranteed to survive the opening leg thanks to the chicken-hearted “all.”

Pick five recommendation (50-cent wager): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with 5, 8 with 2, 7 with 1 with 1, 2, 4. Cost: $36.

Race 2 (2:35 p.m. PT)

The program odds might be out of whack in this claiming turf sprint. Handsome Cat (8) at 12-1 and Shootin Money (5) at 10-1 ran well last out versus similar, both have versatile styles, and their speed figures fit the level. Program favorite Commander (1) has lost eight straight since winning the first two starts of his career in France; five furlongs is shorter than he prefers. He is vulnerable.

Recommendation: Win bets on Handsome Cat (8) Shootin Money (5), minimum odds 6-1. Those two “longshots” are the only runners from this race on the pick five.

Race 3 (3:07 p.m. PT)

A vulnerable favorite is Trojan Magic (5), though it is risky to label a maiden-20 favorite as “vulnerable.” After all, this class happens to be among the most predictable on the circuit. Maiden-20 favorites (males) here last summer won 7 of 13.

Trojan Magic, however, is headed the wrong direction with repeated class drops and habitual underperformance relative to odds. Furthermore, his pacesetting style was not effective the past two summers at seven furlongs. Trojan Magic is a favorite to bet against. He might win anyway, but 2-1 does not justify the risk.

Da Kine (2) is this handicapper’s top choice at 5-2, down slightly in class with proven form at Del Mar. Second preference is Northern California special-weight dropper Bigfoot City (7), listed at 8-1 for his initial try in a maiden-claiming race.

Only for the sake of action, a win bet on second preference Bigfoot City (7) at 6-1 or higher and exacta box with Da Kine (2) is the play.

Exacta box numbers: 2, 7. Tossing out the favorite Trojan Magic.

Race 4 (3:37 p.m. PT)

This is a maiden-claiming turf route for fillies and mares, and because we are conditioned to knock career losers such as 11-start maiden Sapori Girl (1), we end up chasing rainbows. It is not necessary.

Sapori Girl’s third last out would have been a win, except she was four and five wide throughout. Now she draws the rail and figures to save ground. Doubt she will be offered at 7-2 program odds, but she is worth a win bet at 3-1 and a “single” in the pick five.

Recommendation: Win bet on Sapori Girl (1) at 3-1 or higher.

Race 5 (4:07 p.m. PT)

This maiden field is not strong. Many trainers fell behind with 2-year-olds during the spring interruption, it might be midseason before the division takes shape.

With that in mind, second-time starter Cross Indian (1) is worth a longshot play at 8-1. His debut was better than it looks. He shuffled from between horses, always sandwiched in traffic, and finished evenly. He ran like a horse that will move up second out.

Hot Rod Charlie (2), sibling to champion sprinter Mitole, is this handicapper’s choice, but he is no bargain at 3-1. The same applies to favorite Raisebeforetheflop (4). Both are by stallions (Oxbow, Liam’s Map) whose juvenile progeny won just 6 percent first out.

Recommendation: Win bet on second preference Cross Indian (1) at 6-1 or higher and exacta key box with favorites Hot Rod Charlie and Raisebeforetheflop.

Exacta key box: 1 with 2, 4. With a $1 minimum, that is a $4 bet.

Race 6 (4:37 p.m. PT)

If last-out maiden winner Duplicity (4) starts at program odds of 8-1, he would be an attractive overlay. His maiden win was impressive, the lightly raced colt is a legit contender in this N1X turf sprint.

The same applies to second preference Psycho Dar (8), already proven at this level. The knock on favorite Speedy Justice (6) is odds. A seven-length debut winner on this course in his only start, he is the 7-2 favorite with no particular speed-pace advantage

Recommendation: Win bet at 4-1 or higher on Duplicity (4), win bet at 6-1 or higher on second preference Psycho Dar (8). Exacta keys using those two over multiple contenders. $1 exacta key: 4, 8 with 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 = $10.

Race 7 (5:07 p.m. PT)

Lil Sydney (4) is likely to be knocked down from his 8-1 morning line. Maiden-claiming winner two back, Lil Sydney raced over his conditions last out in a race won by a stablemate. He drops to N2L claiming and has gotten progressively faster since he returned in March as a first-time gelding.

Recommendation: At 4-1 or higher, Lil Sydney (4) is the most attractive win wager on the entire card. He is the first of two singles in the late pick four.

Pick four recommendation (50-cent wager): 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 with 1, 3 with 5. Cost: $9.

Race 8 (5:37 p.m. PT)

Late-running comebacker Big Score (9) is this handicapper’s choice to win his first start since October, but 7-2 is no bargain. The value is on 12-1 second preference Souter (7), who ran super finishing third in his comeback.

Even if he is bet in half, Souter is worth backing in a speed-filled turf mile that sets up for his style. Program favorite Kiwi’s Dream faces a different, compromising pace scenario than his recent starts. Kiwi’s Dream is vulnerable.

Recommendation: Win bet at 6-1 or higher on Souter (7); exacta key boxes Souter with Voodoo Song, Murad Khan, and Big Score. The $1 exacta key box: 7 with 4, 8, 9 = $6.

Race 9 (6:07 p.m. PT)

Diva in Charge (3) should be among the most heavily favored runners on the card, far lower than her 5-2 program odds. She is the fastest in the field, 2 for 2 since stretching out. The knock is price, Diva in Charge could flirt with even-money.

However, a filly she dusted last time is worth an action bet – the 10-1 Paige Runner (1), second start off the claim by Doug O’Neill. It’s one of the “best-kept-secret” DRF Formulator angles: O’Neill first or second off the claim. The past two years, O’Neill is 29 for 112 first/second off the claim, flat-bet profit.

Action only: Win bet on Paige Runner (1).

Race 10 (6:37 p.m. PT)

One of the most probable winners on the card is Nurse Goodbody (5), who is sitting on a maiden win as the 3-1 favorite in this turf mile. She ran super finishing second last out in just the second start of her career.

Recommendation: Win bet on Nurse Goodbody (5) at 5-2 or higher. She already is a single to close out the late pick four.