Del Mar Babies for Wednesday, Sept. 3

Race 8

Grade I Del Mar Futurity
2-year-old colts and ridglings
Seven furlongs, Polytrack
Purse: $300,000

Key contenders

5) Iron Fist

Although he’s still a maiden, this son of Tapit has shown hints of major ability in his first two starts. He’s still a touch on the green side of things as evidenced by his poor breaks from the gate and his sloppy lead changes, but there’s no denying the talent is there. If he can put it all together today for Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer there’s a decent chance this ridgling will make his maiden score a Grade I victory.

FORMULATOR FACT: Hollendorfer is 5 for 22 (16 in the money, $3.03 return on investment) over the past five years with 2-year-olds in Grade 1 races.

2) Oh Newman

Another horse who hasn’t won a race yet, this son of Munnings may have run the most visually impressive race of any horse in the field. After being extremely slow getting into stride, this colt rolled up very wide off the far turn and came charging home, getting his final 3 1/2 furlongs more than 1 1/2 seconds faster than any other runner in the field – including winner Inexcess Time. Not only was his come-home time sensational, but this guy galloped out in a major way. Aaron Gryder takes the mount today for trainer Phil D’Amato, and if he can break reasonably well he’ll be rolling home late.

FORMULATOR FACT: D’Amato is 2 for 4 over the past two years with 2-year-olds making their second career start ($7.65 ROI).

9) Skyway

This son of Sky Mesa’s love of Polytrack is undeniable, and based on his 2 for 2 record on the surface he’s the horse they’ll all have to beat. After a decent third in the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs in June, Skyway came to Southern California and flourished, leading with a solid victory in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes here on Aug. 3. Corey Nakatani has options aboard this guy breaking from the outside post, and it’s not unreasonable to think that another step forward is on the way.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Mark Casse is 8 for 31 (23 ITM, $2.27 ROI) over the past three years with last-out winners in graded stakes races on synthetic.

The strategy

The pace scenario could be the demise of some of these runners, but at the end of the day I think Iron Fist is the most gifted runner in this field. I’ll be using him in exactas and will hope to get the proper odds necessary to play him across the board, but I’m also very interested in playing Oh Newman based on his maiden effort. Here are the plays I’ll be making for the Del Mar Futurity:

WIN, PLACE and SHOW wagers on 5) Iron Fist at odds of 5-1 or greater
WIN, PLACE and SHOW wagers on 2) Oh Newman at odds of 6-1 or greater
EXACTA BOX of 2, 5, 9