Del Mar Babies for Wednesday, July 30
Race 6
1 mile, turf
Maiden special weight
2-year-old males
Field of 11
Purse: $75,000
Key Contenders
No. 11 North of Oswego
This colt by Leroidesanimaux sold for $85,000 last September and has been working consistently up to his debut for trainer Cody Autrey. Autrey’s numbers with first-time starters are very impressive, and although his numbers with grass runners aren’t spectacular, I’m willing to look past them. 2014 Haskell-winning rider Martin Garcia takes the mount for this colt’s debut, and it certainly doesn’t appear to be the deepest of fields. There’s plenty of time between the gate and the clubhouse turn for Garcia to get this guy over and save some ground. If he’s ready to go, he could be dangerous at a price.
FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Cody Autrey is 5 for 18 (9 ITM, $4.28 ROI) over the past five years with 2-year-old first-time starters.
No. 10 Bollente
Trainer Mark Casse’s barn has been sending out live runners all meet so far at Del Mar – the only problem is he’s still yet to find the winner’s circle. It’s only a matter of time before he saddles a winner in San Diego, and his first very well could be Bollente in this spot. This son of More Than Ready carried a hefty price tag when sold in April ($550,000), and he’s been working up a storm prior to his unveiling. Stewart Elliott has been riding very well during this Del Mar meeting – his 1-for-17 record is very deceiving as he’s finished second with 7 of his 17 mounts. This colt appears well meant here. This could be the one that finally gets Casse over the hump.
FORMULATOR FACT: Sire More Than Ready’s 2-year-olds are 33 for 197 over the past five years on turf.
No. 5 P Club
After a dismal debut on dirt at Santa Anita last month, trainer Walther Solis decided to send P Club out on the grass going long, which resulted in a much improved effort. On the far turn, this son of Bushwacker began to put in a solid run before switching back to his left lead down the lane and ultimately running a decent third. If he can take a step forward off that effort and mature a little bit, he’s not without a shot in this field.
FORMULATOR FACT: The jockey/trainer combination of Fernando Perez/Walther Solis is 4 for 23 (12 ITM, $3.32 ROI) over the past year.
The Strategy
In what appears to be a rather wide-open maiden special weight event, I’ll look to make a small win wager on North of Oswego at odds of 10-1 or greater. The far outside post is of little concern to me and I really don’t believe the horse needs to be that good to win here first time out. I’ll also box these three in an exacta. The plays look like this:
WIN wager on No. 11 North of Oswego at odds of 10-1 or greater
EXACTA BOX of 5, 10, 11
Race 7
5 1/2 furlongs
Graduation Stakes
2-year-old males
Field of 7
Purse: $100,000
Key Contenders
No. 7 Wake Up Nick
This horse could potentially be a standout in this field and likely a single on many multi-race wagers. Wake Up Nick has done little wrong in his two starts, performing very professionally in each effort. This son of Cindago didn’t improve much on the Beyer Speed Figure scale from start one to start two, but the way in which he prevailed in the stakes event at Santa Anita is what will lead many to believe he’s strictly the horse to beat here. Wednesday’s effort will be his second of the form cycle and second consecutive stakes effort. Should he perform strongly here again, expect to see him in a graded stakes event next time out.
FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Doug O’Neill is 7 for 51 over the past five years with 2-year-old sprinters at Del Mar.
No. 1 Atta’ Boy Woody
Atta’ Boy Woody couldn’t have been much more impressive in his debut going five furlongs at Santa Anita last month. This son of Atticus leveled out beautifully once he changed his leads at the top of the lane and drew off powerfully, ultimately winning by more than seven lengths. He topped off the performance with a monstrous gallop out, and if anyone can have horses ready for peak performances it’s Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. The only knock against this guy coming out of that start is the fact that the race has come back incredibly weak. This is quite a jump in class for him, but if the debut effort was any indication, Atta’ Boy Woody is a serious runner.
FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is 4 for 16 (10 ITM) over the past five years with last-out maiden winners returning at Del Mar.
The Strategy
As much as I’d love to play this race, it just doesn’t seem like there’s going to be any value. I’ll be very surprised if both of the major players doesn’t fire a somewhat respectable effort, and they should both be very tough for the other runners to handle. Unfortunately, unless you’re using one or both of these runners in a multi-race sequence, this seems as if it’s a race where you just sit back and enjoy.