Del Mar Babies for Wednesday, July 23

Race 1

5 ½ furlongs
Maiden claiming $80,000
2-year-old fillies
Field of 7
Purse: $47,000

Key contenders

5) Nicole Michelle

Racing experience can truly be invaluable when it comes to 2-year-old races, and Nicole Michelle has that – which is more than can be said for the majority of this field. Well backed by the wagering public in her debut, this daughter of Zensational made a bid in the five path on the far turn and unfortunately never changed leads down the lane. She’ll go from a maiden special weight race at Emerald to a maiden-claiming event here at Del Mar, and one must hope she learned a thing or two in her debut. If you view that effort as educational, she has every right to take a step forward here. Nicole Michelle will get Lasix for her second start, and I’m expecting her to graduate today.

FORMULATOR FACT: Over the past three years, trainer Tim McCanna is 13 for 74 ($2.42 return on investment) with horses receiving Lasix for the first time in maiden-claiming races.

2) Shez a Masterpiece

Trainer Craig Dollase has worked wonders in the past with first-time starters, and he’s got what looks to be a live one here in Shez a Masterpiece. If this daughter of Mast Track takes to a synthetic surface the way her father did (multiple graded stakes winner on synthetic surfaces), the rest of these fillies could be in trouble. She’s been working nicely at Santa Anita since the middle of June, and there’s little arguing that she’s in good hands with these connections. She’s out of a nice stakes winner sprinter on both dirt and turf, so her pedigree suggests versatility could be expected.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Craig Dollase is 3 for 8 (5 in the money, $2.27 ROI) over the past three years with 2-year-olds in maiden-claiming races.

1) Stealth Drone

Stealth Drone would appear to have the nicest pedigree when it comes to the conditions of this event, being by Smoke Glacken out of the mare Stealth Cat. Smoke Glacken was a multiple graded stakes winner sprinting, but the most important piece of information regarding his racing career is that he twice won graded events as a juvenile. His progeny have been very successful as 2-year-olds, and this filly should follow suit. Her mother was a multiple graded stakes winner who earned nearly $400,000 in her career on the track, and while Stealth Drone is her first foal, it’s at least nice to see that she comes from a classy family. Trainer Peter Miller is known to have his horses ready to go at first asking, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her having her picture taken immediately after her debut effort.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Peter Miller is 8 for 24 (11 ITM, $2.52 ROI) over the past two years with 2-year-old fillies making their first career start.

The strategy

I view these three fillies as the likeliest winners of the race, and therefore the likeliest candidates to make up the exacta. Unfortunately I don’t think any of them will offer anything tremendous from a value perspective. Because of this, I’ll try to play a trifecta that involves all three of these horses, keying my play around No. 5, Nicole Michelle. The plays will look like this:

5 / 1,2 / 1,2
1,2 / 5 / 1,2
1,2 / 1,2 / 5

For information regarding all the runners in each of these fields, be sure to check out Closer Looks in DRF GamePlan.