Del Mar Babies for Wednesday, Aug. 20
Race 6
Maiden special weight
2-year-old colts and geldings
1 mile, Polytrack
Purse: $75,000
Key Contenders
8) Increase
There are actually some decent horses in this spot who will be making their second career starts – and experience can be a major difference maker in baby races. It’s interesting to note that this son of Neko Bay debuts going a mile, which is something incredibly difficult for young horses to do. Trainer A.C. Avila has had a phenomenal Del Mar meet thus far, and while he doesn’t typically do well with first-time starters, this colt’s work tab is very intriguing.
FORMULATOR FACT: The jockey/trainer combination of Tiago Pereira/Avila has gone 6 for 28 (21 in the money, $2.35 return on investment) over the past 90 days.
9) Texas Red
After breaking slowly in his first two starts, this son of Afleet Alex will stretch out to two turns for the first time here. He increased his Beyer Speed Figure by eight points between starts one and two, and although there are some other solid runners in this spot, he figures to be coming from the back of the pack under Kent Desormeaux and could offer some decent value. The big question remains – can he learn to get away from the gate cleanly? A poor start likely won’t bury him like it would in a sprint, but it surely won’t help his chances.
FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Keith Desormeaux is 26 for 135 (19%) over the past four years with horses going from sprints to routes.
7) Battle of Evermore
This Scat Daddy colt ran well in his debut at Del Mar on July 26, and he gives off the impression that two turns shouldn’t be much of a concern. It’s always good to see horses come right back from a start and resume training, and this colt hasn’t missed a beat. Trainer John Sadler does well with horses making their second career starts, and it’s encouraging to see Rafael Bejarano stay aboard for this horse’s second go-around.
FORMULATOR FACT: Sadler is 3 for 10 (4 ITM, $3.10 ROI) over the past five years with second-time starters stretching from a sprint to a route at Del Mar.
The strategy
While there are more accomplished runners in this field, I’m really intrigued by Avila’s runner here, Increase. The workouts are very interesting, especially the mile drill here on Aug. 8, which was then followed up by a four-furlong bullet from the gate on Aug. 14. The mile work was meant to build some stamina and the four-furlong bullet was to hopefully instill a bit of speed in this colt. I’ll play him across the board and box him in exactas with both Texas Red and Battle of Evermore. Here are the plays:
WIN, PLACE and SHOW wagers on 8) Increase at odds of 8-1 or greater
EXACTA BOX of 7, 8, 9