Del Mar Babies for Sunday, July 20

Race 4
5 furlongs
Maiden special weight
2-year-old fillies
Field of 10
Purse: $75,000

Key contenders

8) Diva Express
Trainer Mark Casse has brought a string of horses to Southern California for the 2014 Del Mar summer meet, and this daughter of Afleet Express is a very intriguing juvenile. Purchased for $260,000 in April of this year, this filly has been working steadily at Churchill Downs – but the most intriguing workout came July 14 at Del Mar (four-furlong bullet from the gate in 47.4 seconds). Casse does tremendous work with 2-year-olds, and I expect this filly to be ready to roll at first asking.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Mark Casse is 27 of 102 (53 ITM) over the past two years with 2-year-old fillies.

1) Maybellene
Whenever Bob Baffert has a 2-year-old first-time starter at Del Mar, you can guarantee he or she will take money, and that’s almost surely to be the case with Maybellene. This filly by Lookin At Lucky was purchased for $140,000 last September, and if she’s anything like her father, she’ll love the Polytrack at Del Mar. Lookin At Lucky was a multiple Grade 1 winner in his career, and he did some of his best running over synthetic surfaces (5 for 7 lifetime; never off the board). The fact the dam didn’t do much running during her career and she’s proven to be a less-than-stellar broodmare to date is a bit of a concern, but there’s still reason to believe this filly could be a runner.

FORMULATOR FACT: Lookin At Lucky is 5 for 15 as a sire with 2-year-old runners to date.

4) Tara’s Tango
Tara’s Tango has all the ingredients needed to be successful in her first career start: She’s got the breeding (Unbridled’s Song – Scarlet Tango by French Deputy); she’s got the connections (Stonestreet Stables/Jerry Hollendorfer/Mike Smith); most importantly, she appears to have some ability based on her workout tab. Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer does very nice work with fillies at first asking, and her dam Scarlet Tango has proven herself as a productive broodmare. Don’t be surprised if she’s on her toes for her debut.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is 14 for 37 ($2.70 ROI) with first-time starter fillies over the past year.

The strategy
At the end of the day, sometimes keeping things simple is the proper way to go. I could try to get creative and hook a few horses up in exactas and potentially a trifecta, but the horse I like, Diva Express, is 15-1 on the morning line. Based on her workout tab, connections, and pedigree, I’ll be shocked if she goes off at a price anywhere near that – but if she does, I’ll be all over her. I’ll look to play her at odds of 6-1 or greater, and I’ll likely play her across the board.

Race 8
5 furlongs
Maiden special weight
2-year-old fillies
Field of 10
Purse: $75,000

Key contenders

3) Conquest Archangel
The key to this daughter of Blame doesn’t lie within the breeding (although sire Blame is off to a nice start as a stallion) or her trainer (Mark Casse is very strong with 2-year-olds in general); the key to this filly is the debut race she ran at Churchill Downs and more importantly whom she ran into. On June 22, Conquest Archangel was the odds-on favorite in her debut, but she ran into a filly named Take Charge Brandi who defeated her very stylishly. Take Charge Brandi returned Friday at Saratoga to run a very game second to a well-meant Todd Pletcher 2-year-old named Fashion Alert; I’ll be very surprised if Conquest Archangel runs into any fillies here close to the caliber of either of those horses, and she’ll likely be a handful in here.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Mark Casse is 6 for 18 (14 ITM) over the past year with 2-year-old fillies who are making their second career starts.

10) Megyns Gold
There are some interesting X-factors that are associated with the Zensational filly Megyns Gold. We know what the sire can do when it comes to his offspring (5 for 23 over the past five years with juveniles on synthetic), but the questions begin to mount when it comes to the dam. Not only was Thornless unraced, but her only other foal to date has gone unraced as well. There’s no denying that this filly is in good hands with trainer Cody Autrey and rider Joe Talamo, but there are definitely some interesting things to consider with this horse.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Cody Autrey is 3 for 9 (6 ITM) with an ROI of $7.81 over the past three years with 2-year-old first-time starters.

8) Luminance
Stop me if you’ve heard this before – Bob Baffert has a live juvenile first-time starter. Luminance will be one of the favorites in the eighth Sunday at Del Mar and rightfully so. This daughter of Tale of the Cat sold for $320,000 last September, and she’s been training forwardly leading up to her debut. Her latest five-furlong gate drill was sharp, and it’s always nice to see these first-time starters become acquainted with the surface on which they’ll be running. The major question with this filly is regarding her dam; Siren Serenade went 0 for 10 in her career, and Luminance is her only foal to date.

FORMULATOR FACT: Sire Tale of the Cat’s juvenile starters are 25 for 137 over the past five years in synthetic sprints.

The strategy
I’m viewing the effort Take Charge Brandi put forth Friday in the Schuylerville at Saratoga as a positive for Conquest Archangel – she’ll be the key to my wagers. I’ll look to link her up in exactas with both Megyns Gold and Luminance. Conquest Archangel over Megyns Gold, Luminance and Megyns Gold, Luminance over Conquest Archangel.

For information regarding all the runners in each of these fields, be sure to check out Closer Looks in DRF GamePlan.