Del Mar Babies for Sunday, Aug. 3
Race 8
Grade II Best Pal Stakes
6 1/2 Furlongs
2-Year-Old Colts and Geldings
Field of 8
Purse: $200,000
Key Contenders
2) Conquest Bigluck E
This son of Lookin At Lucky delivered an impressive performance in his career debut at Churchill Downs in early June, rating kindly on the far turn behind horses before hitting his best stride late to win going 4 ½ furlongs. The comments in the past performances show him only prevailing by a half-length, but a quick watch of the replay will show rider Alan Garcia wrapped up on him, winning by a measured margin. Now, Mike Smith takes the mount for trainer Mark Casse, and any sort of improvement from this horse will make him a major threat here.
FORMULATOR FACT: Over the past two years, trainer Mark Casse is 5 for 10 (90 percent ITM, $2.49 ROI) with 2-year-old second time starters going from dirt to synthetic.
1) Story to Tell
This colt has done little wrong in his three career starts, winning two and running a game second in the other. His latest effort was an encouraging one as he encountered some bumping when running down the lane, and while most juveniles would shy away from the contact and fold, this son of Bluegrass Cat continued on willingly. The major concern with this horse is the fact that his Beyer Speed Figures haven’t progressed at all in any of his three starts (74-74-72); at some point he’s going to need to run faster to prove he’s not just a precocious 2-year-old and that he has actually got some talent.
FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Dan Hendricks is 10 for 46 (19 ITM, $2.55 ROI) over the past five years with horses transitioning from dirt to synthetic.
7) Skyway
Skyway has one major piece of experience that none of the other runners in this field do, and it’s not just a start over the Polytrack – it’s a smashing victory. In his debut, this son of Sky Mesa romped at Keeneland back in April by more than six lengths; he went away for a while and returned in the Bashford Manor at Churchill, running a decent third behind Cinco Charlie and Silverhill. 2-year-olds can improve by leaps and bounds at any time, and this hose could be a candidate to take a huge step forward – especially since he’s getting back over a surface he has already proven he can handle.
FORMULATOR FACT: Sire Sky Mesa’s juveniles have gone 18 for 88 over the past five years in synthetic sprints.
The Strategy
I’m very high on Conquest Bigluck E, but I acknowledge there are some uncertainties here. I love the thought of getting anything close to his 5-1 morning line, but I realize there are numerous other contenders in this spot. I will look to key Conquest Bigluck E in exactas with both Story to Tell and Skyway, as well as play him to win and place. Here are the plays:
WIN/PLACE wagers on 2) Conquest Bigluck E at odds of 7-2 or more
EXACTAS of 2 / 1,7
EXACTAS of 1,7 / 2
For information regarding all the runners in this field, be sure to check out Closer Looks in DRF GamePlan.