Del Mar Babies for Sunday, Aug. 10
Race 7
Maiden special weight
2-year-old fillies
6 1/2 furlongs, Polytrack
Purse: $75,000
Key contenders
4. Diva Express
This daughter of Afleet Express ran very well in her debut – unfortunately for her, she ran into a beast of a filly named Tara’s Tango. There’s plenty of room for improvement with this Mark Casse trainee, mainly because she never changed leads while running down the lane. The greenness combined with a slightly premature move from rider Stewart Elliott in the debut lead one to believe she’s got all the upside in the world. Look for a big effort from this gal.
FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Mark Casse is 15 for 58 (38 ITM, $2.82 ROI) over the past two years with horses making their second career starts in maiden special-weight sprints.
5. Maybellene
Bob Baffert’s runner put forth a nice performance in her debut, running in the same heat that Diva Express exits. Breaking alertly and going straight to the lead, this daughter of Lookin At Lucky eventually was collared on the far turn but continued on gamely down the lane to finish a solid third. Today she’ll lose the blinkers, possibly with the hopes that she’ll be able to settle in behind runners a bit more comfortably. She has every right to move forward in her second career start.
FORMULATOR FACT: Over the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert is 8 for 22 (17 ITM, $2.20 ROI) with horses making their second career starts while also removing blinkers for the first time.
1. Manahatta
When Jerry Hollendorfer has a 2-year-old working as quickly as this daughter of Old Fashioned, you must take notice. Her last two drills here at Del Mar have been quite snappy, and it surely appears she possesses good early speed. She’ll likely need to showcase that speed, as she breaks from the rail for her debut – something which is never easy for young horses to overcome. Look for her to flash some early foot and try to get out of that perilous spot as soon as possible.
FORMULATOR FACT: Over the past five years, the jockey-trainer combination of Rafael Bejarano-Jerry Hollendorfer is 7 for 14 (9 ITM, $2.81 ROI) with maidens at Del Mar.
The strategy
I loved her in her debut, and I’ve got no reason to abandon ship now – I like Diva Express quite a bit here. If she can mature some and take a step forward off that 75 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in her debut, she’s likely to be tough to beat. I’ll play her to win as well as hook her up in exactas with both Maybellene and Manahatta.
The play: WIN wager on #4 Diva Express at odds of 5-2 or greater; EXACTAS of 4 / 1,5; EXACTAS of 1,5 / 4