Del Mar babies for Saturday, Aug. 9

Race 4
Maiden special weight
2-year-old colts, geldings, and ridglings
6 1/2 furlongs, Polytrack
Purse: $75,000

Key Contenders

2) Iron Fist
Iron Fist is a $1.55 million son of the excellent sire Tapit, and he ran very greenly in his debut here a few weeks ago. He was slow into stride, needed to be encouraged entering the far turn, and made a wide, sweeping move on the far turn before hanging on his left lead down the lane. Despite his issues, he still ran on willingly and figures to benefit greatly from that educational effort. This Jerry Hollendorfer trainee should take a step forward in his second career start, and I expect him to be difficult here.

FORMULATOR FACT: Hollendorfer is 7 for 25 (12 in the money, $2.19 return on investment) over the past year with runners in maiden special weight affairs at Del Mar.

6) American Pharoah
This son of Pioneerof the Nile has been working up a storm leading up to his unveiling for trainer Bob Baffert and figures to be a very tough customer in this spot. The back-to-back gate drills have been very snappy (typical Baffert form), and it’s worth noting the presence of Martin Garcia aboard this colt instead of the other Baffert runner. Expect this guy to hit the ground running and put forth a very legitimate performance at first asking.

FORMULATOR FACT: Baffert is 14 for 43 (26 ITM, $1.72 ROI) over the past year with 2-year-old first-time starters.

1) Calculator
Calculator exits the same heat as Iron Fist (July 19), and this son of In Summation actually defeated Iron Fist that day. Jockey Corey Nakatani needed to encourage this Peter Miller trainee to stay in touch with the field early before proceeding to roll up three wide on the far turn, angle out to the 5/6 path turning for home, and continue to run on gamely down the lane. His two workouts since that effort appear to be nothing more than maintenance works, so don’t expect any real changes in tactics. If he can break cleanly and at least maintain contact with the field throughout the opening portions of the running, he should have a say in the outcome.

FORMULATOR FACT: The jockey/trainer combination of Nakatani/Miller has gone 4 for 18 (10 ITM, $5.25 ROI) over the past five years in maiden special weight races.

The Strategy

While I think Iron Fist is the most likely winner, I’m not sure what he’s going to offer for value; the same could be said for American Pharoah, even though he’ll be making his career debut. The key to my plays will be Calculator. I’ll look to key him in exactas with both Iron Fist and American Pharoah, as well as key him in trifectas with those two, while also utilizing the “ALL” button. Here are the plays:
EXACTAS of 1 / 2,6
EXACTAS of 2,6 / 1
TRIFECTAS of 1 / 2,6 / ALL
TRIFECTAS of 2,6 / 1 / ALL
TRIFECTAS of 2,6 / ALL / 1