Del Mar Babies for Saturday, Aug. 30

Race 9

Grade I Del Mar Debutante
2-year-old fillies
7 furlongs, Polytrack
Purse: $300,000

Key contenders

3) Starlet O’Hara

If the race is run the way it appears it’s likely to on paper, this daughter of Discreetly Mine should be coming with a full head of steam as the field turns for home. There appears to be a fair amount of speed, and the fact that this gal likes to pass horses speaks volumes about her ability at this stage in the game. She’s shown she can handle both dirt and synthetic based on her first two starts, and there would seem to be no reason why she wouldn’t take another step forward here with the added distance. Although she loses winning rider Victor Espinoza she does pick up the go-to rider for Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Bob Baffert is 6 for 21 (8 in the money, $5.25 return on investment) over the past four years with horses who broke their maiden last out and are now entered in a Grade I stakes.

6) Her Emmynency

Another filly who will likely be doing her best running late, this daughter of Successful Appeal broke her maiden like a sure thing here on Aug. 2. She’s registered two solid works since that maiden score here a few weeks back for trainer Mike Stidham, and if she moves forward off that effort she’ll be a handful for these girls late. The biggest question for this filly is the added distance. Although she drew off impressively and gave the impression that she’ll relish the added ground, 5 1/2 furlongs to seven furlongs is a big jump for any horse, never mind a 2-year-old filly.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Michael Stidham is 4 for 24 (12 ITM) over the past three years with horses that broke their maiden last out and are running on synthetic.

5) Sunset Glow

Simply put, if Sunset Glow runs back to her effort in the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes here on Aug. 6, the rest of these fillies are running for second. Not only did the Beyer Speed Figure come back huge for her performance that day, but she was about as visually impressive as a 2-year-old filly can be when drawing away from her competition. Trainer Wesley Ward has clearly been high on her for quite some time (she was shipped to Royal Ascot in June), and she gives off the impression that seven furlongs will be right up her alley. The only thing that could hurt her chances in here would be a quick pace that forces her to go too fast early.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Wesley Ward is 4 for 11 (7 ITM, $2.96 ROI) over the past three years at Del Mar (2 for 3 in 2014).

The strategy

This is a very contentious renewal of the Del Mar Debutante, but I love the idea of playing Starlet O’Hara across the board for a fair amount; I’ll also key her with Her Emmynency and Sunset Glow in a variety of trifectas. Here are the plays:

WIN, PLACE and SHOW wagers on 3) Starlet O’Hara at odds of 4-1 or greater

TRIFECTAS of:
3 / 5,6 / ALL
3 / ALL / 5,6
5,6 / 3 / ALL
5,6 / ALL / 3