Del Mar Babies for Saturday, Aug. 16
Race 6
Maiden special weight
2-year-old colts, geldings, and ridglings
5 1/2 furlongs, Polytrack
Purse: $75,000
Key Contenders
# 8 Kantune – This Mark Casse trainee ran very well in his career debut here July 19, only to lose by a half-length to an impressive Bob Baffert trainee named Lord Nelson. That heat’s form was solidified when the third- and fourth-place finishers came to earn Beyer Speed Figures of 76 and 79 in their subsequent starts; any sort of progression from this son of Kantharos and the rest of the field likely is running for second honors.
FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Mark Casse is 7 for 33 (24 ITM, $2.69 ROI) over the past year with 2-year-old second-time starters in maiden special-weight events.
#2 Pappou – The owners of this son of Tapit paid $400,000 for him at the Keeneland September Sale last year, and he’ll be making his career debut here for trainer John Sadler. Sadler has a history of doing well with these kinds of horses, and the way he’s been training would lead one to believe he’s plenty fit enough. The latest three-furlong blowout from the gate is encouraging and would seem to be a likely indicator of early speed coming from this guy. He likely is a major player in this field.
Formulator Fact: Trainer John Sadler is 14 for 56 (32 ITM, $2.67 ROI) over the past five years with 2-year-old first time starters at Del Mar.
#4 Film Freak – Tom Proctor trains this son of the 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, and based on his workouts, he’s coming into his debut effort in fine form. It needs to be noted that his two most recent works have both been here at Del Mar over the Polytrack, and it’s very encouraging to see the drill Aug. 5 came at a distance longer than he’ll be debuting at. Proctor has some strong numbers with horses in this kind of situation, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this colt come out of the box running under rider Mike Smith.
Formulator Fact: Over the past three years, the jockey-trainer combination of Mike Smith-Tom Proctor has gone 5 for 18 (7 ITM, $3.93 ROI) in races at Del Mar.
The Strategy
I like Kantune a lot in this spot, and I’m hopeful some of the first-time starters for the big name trainers take some money. In an ideal world, I’ll be able to play Kantune to win as well as key him in exactas and trifectas.
Here are the plays:
WIN: Wager on #8 Kantune at odds of 7-2 or greater
EXACTAS: 8 / 2, 4
TRIFECTAS: 8 / 2, 4 / 2, 4; 2, 4 / 8 / 2, 4; 2,4 / 2, 4 / 8