Del Mar Babies for Friday, Aug. 29

Race 3

Maiden Claiming $50,000

2-Year-Old Fillies

5 1/2 Furlongs, Polytrack

Purse: $38,000

Key Contenders

7) Sheezflippinsexy

This daughter of Tale of the Cat debuts for less than her September 2013 purchase price, but it’s not like she will be going up against the greatest juveniles in the world in this spot. Trainer Vann Belvoir has had a very successful Del Mar meet thus far, and it’s always encouraging to see Rafael Bejarano take a mount at first asking. Her drills have been reasonable for the level, and it would be more surprising if she didn’t pick her feet up here than if she came out of the box running.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Vann Belvoir is 8 for 36 (18 ITM) over the past five years with 2-year-olds debuting in maiden claiming events.

5) Honey Nugget

Trainer Ted West isn’t known for the work he does with 2-year-olds, but it’s hard to deny the fact that runners from his barn have been live all meeting (9-4-1-0). Honey Nugget is by 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, whose progeny have come out of the gates very quickly thus far. This miss hasn’t been burning up the work tab in the morning, but she appears to be entering this heat fit enough and she doesn’t need to be a stakes-caliber filly to get the job done here.

FORMULATOR FACT: Sire Super Saver’s juveniles have gone 8 for 35 to date (25 foals).

The Strategy

This race screams, “CRAP SHOOT!” From an individual race standpoint, I’m only interested in playing these two fillies across the board if I get the odds I’m looking for. If you decide to take on Friday’s pick five, you will have to navigate this race very carefully – and odds are you’re going to need to spread to feel comfortable about this leg of the wager. Again, I will be treading lightly in this race, but here’s what I will look to play:

WIN, PLACE and SHOW wagers on 7) Sheezflippinsexy at odds of 5-1 or greater

WIN, PLACE and SHOW wagers on 5) Honey Nugget at odds of 7-1 or greater