Declan Schuster's Hong Kong selections and analysis for Wednesday, February 27, 2019

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS
(Wednesday February 27, 2019)

RACE 1: #8 Lucky Storm, #1 Gentry, #3 Lucky Shiny Day, #4 Enjoyable Success
RACE 2: #1 Sangria, #4 King Of Mongolia, #10 Le Panache, #5 Tai Smart
RACE 3: #3 Frustrated, #6 Oriental Elite, #1 Thou Shall Sing, #11 Tom’s Dragon
RACE 4: #6 Wah May Princess, #4 Band Of Brothers, #10 The Show, #1 Super Leader
RACE 5: #2 Play Wise, #12 Spinning Dancer, #9 Heroic Guru, #6 My Winner
RACE 6: #9 Shimmer And Shine, #7 Blitzing, #4 Mr Genuine, #6 Powermax
RACE 7: #1 Harmony Hero, #9 Defining Moment, #6 Big Bang Bong, #4 Brave Legend
RACE 8: #2 Gamechangers, #9 Lady First, #6 Ambitious Heart, #8 Navas

RACE 1: YUE MAN HANDICAP

#8 Lucky Storm remains winless from 17 Hong Kong starts. He’s been consistent without winning but he should find the lead in this and make his own luck. #1 Gentry has won twice across his 32-start career, with his last win coming at the end of 2017 in Class 5. He’ll improve sharply in his return to Class 5 racing, even with 133lb on his back. #3 Lucky Shiny Day switches back to the turf after finishing a distant eighth on the dirt. He’s another who is yet to record a win in Hong Kong, but his third placing prior to his last-start failure suggests that he is capable of being competitive with a return to the turf. #4 Enjoyable Success is another who switches back to the turf from the dirt. He can’t be overlooked.

RACE 2: WAI YIP HANDICAP

#1 Sangria is yet to record a win this season but his placing at Class 3 level just three starts ago reads very well for this. The drop back to Class 4 racing is a welcome one here and he looks like he may get a race run to suit and, if so, he will be flying home late. #4 King Of Mongolia is already a winner over this course and distance and his recent form suggests that he is capable of another. #10 Le Panache doesn’t win out of turn, but from the inside draw (1) he should be able to get a soft run throughout. Strong booking of Joao Moreira should see him get his chance. #5 Tai Smart is winless from 19 Hong Kong starts, but he’s placed in two of his last three and from the inside draw (3) combined with Vincent Ho’s claim (-2lb), he is expected to make his presence felt.

RACE 3: MUT WAH HANDICAP

#3 Frustrated has drawn poorly once again in barrier 11 but his gate speed should be able to ensure that he settles in a forward position regardless. Karis Teetan retains the ride which suits and at career-start number two, he is the one to beat. #6 Oriental Elite finished off last season with a win over this course and distance and his latest trial at Conghua suggests that he has returned in very good order. He’s a major player here, especially with Zac Purton in the saddle. #1 Thou Shall Sing was a winner two starts ago and if he finds that form here then he commands respect. Victor Wong’s claim (-7lb) ensures that he gets in very well at the weights with only 126lb on his back, especially as he sits seven points clear of the next highest rated horse in the race. #11 Tom’s Dragon was run off his feet at his latest, but his two placings prior were excellent. He’s much better ridden closer to the speed, which is where he should be under Joao Moreira from barrier 6.

RACE 4: SHING YIP HANDICAP

#6 Wah May Princess turned his form around last start by winning and he could very well do the same again. He’ll find the lead from barrier 5 under Karis Teetan, where he can dictate the race to suit himself and from there prove tough to catch. #4 Band Of Brothers put in an impressive trial performance at Happy Valley leading into this and if he can translate that form to the races, then he is expected to go very close on debut. Strong booking of Zac Purton on a debutante suggests that he has plenty of ability. #10 The Show scored a well-deserved win last start in Class 5 and although he steps up to Class 4, his win was full of merit and from the inside draw (1) he should get a lovely run throughout under Silvestre de Sousa. #1 Super Leader went under as a short-priced favourite on the dirt, but his form prior was excellent, and he should improve with a return to the turf.

RACE 5: SHUI WO HANDICAP

#2 Play Wise remains winless from 13 Hong Kong starts. He rocketed home under Zac Purton at his latest to grab third and if he can find that form again, then he is the one to beat. #12 Spinning Dancer is chasing the hat-trick of wins. He steps up to Class 4 racing which is a slight knock, but he’s an excellent chance to provide Regan Bayliss with his first win in Hong Kong, if of course he has not already achieved it. #9 Heroic Guru flashed home for second in his latest at Sha Tin over 1800m and he is one who should improve dropping back to 1650m, a distance he is already a winner over. #6 My Winner has placed in four of his last five starts. He’s been competitive enough this season to warrant respect.

RACE 6: HOI YUEN HANDICAP

#9 Shimmer And Shine was a dual winner at the tail-end of the 17/18 season and since then he has returned in excellent order, placing twice and finishing fourth once from three runs. He’s a recent acquisition to the Caspar Fownes stable, who under Chad Schofield, is an excellent winning chance. #7 Blitzing is twice a winner already this season for trainer Tony Cruz and he could very well score his third here. He’ll get a very soft run from barrier 5 under Karis Teetan and his recent form suggests that he will be competitive in this, as he finished only two lengths behind Full Of Beauty at his most recent. #4 Mr Genuine finished sixth at his latest, but he was only beaten by just under two lengths. He’ll be flashing home late under Zac Purton. #6 Powermax has mixed his form across his career but his win and two placings already this season suggests that he is racing well and deserves respect.

RACE 7: HUNG TO HANDICAP

#1 Harmony Hero has only recorded the one win since arriving in Hong Kong from Australia, but this appears to be a suitable race for him to double his win tally in. He closed well to finish third at his latest where he was only beaten by three quarters of a length. He’ll be finishing fast underneath Chad Schofield. #9 Defining Moment has plenty of upside and the booking of Zac Purton on him suggests that he is nearing a maiden win in Hong Kong. He flew home to finish fourth at his latest and he’s one who should take benefit from the rise in distance to 1650m. #6 Big Bang Bong has only won three times from 44 career starts, but he’s shown enough consistency this season to warrant respect. #4 Brave Legend is a winner over this course and distance and his last-start placing holds him in good stead for this.

RACE 8: HOI YUEN HANDICAP

#2 Gamechangers was unlucky not to have recorded back-to-back wins at his latest, but nevertheless he gets an excellent chance to atone for that performance here. He’s progressed through the ratings rapidly since resuming this season and he looks capable of returning a winner, especially with Joao Moreira on his back. #9 Lady First closed quickly to finish third at his latest under Derek Leung and the pair get an excellent chance to return a winner. He’ll be flashing home late with only 115lb on his back. #6 Ambitious Heart has already won twice this season and he shapes as a strong chance to win his third. He’ll make his own luck in the lead from the inside draw (3). #8 Navas won well at his latest, but he’s one who needs a lot to go his way for him to be winning.