Declan Schuster's Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, April 7, 2019

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Sunday, April 7, 2019)

Race 1: #3 Beauty Charisma, #4 Champion Pride, #2 Orionids, #8 Goko
Race 2: #9 Supreme Plus, #7 Ezra, #4 Win Win, #14 Flying Noble
Race 3: #1 Mr Stunning, #2 Beat The Clock, #4 Winner’s Way, #3 Rattan
Race 4: #4 Grade One, #6 Smart Leader, #2 Best Alliance, #8 Green Card
Race 5: #13 Wayfoong Charmer, #9 Dragon Dance, #2 Play Wise, #1 Guy Dragon,
Race 6: #12 War Lord, #4 Glenealy Generals, #3 Silver Fig, #9 Diamond Brilliant
Race 7: #1 Beauty Generation, #3 Conte, #8 Mission Tycoon, #9 Rise High
Race 8: #5 Full Of Beauty, #7 Refined Treasure, #3 Styling City, #10 Water Diviner
Race 9: #2 Waikuku, #4 Dark Dream, #7 Victory Boys, #9 Helene Charisma
Race 10: #11 Invincible Missile, #13 Craig’s Star, #1 Noble Steed, #3 Magnificent

Race 1: Lugard Handicap

#3 Beauty Charisma debuts for John Moore. He won a trial recently on the dirt ahead of G1 winner Mr Stunning over 1200m. Previously known as Fifth Amendment when trained in Australia, he finished his career down under with two wins from two starts. #4 Champion Pride is a recent trial winner on the dirt who gets a handy claim from Alfred Chan (-10lb). He’ll find his way into the money here. #2 Orionids placed in a recent trial at Conghua. He scored two wins last season and he’s capable of going close. #8 Goko is a three-time winner over 1000m at Sha Tin. He’ll be thereabouts.

Race 2: Severn Handicap

#8 Supreme Plus was blocked for a run and crowded for room in the straight on debut last start, causing him to finish eighth. Prepared to take a chance on him with Karis Teetan remaining aboard, as he had plenty left in the tank still last start. #7 Ezra was another who was luckless last start. The Tony Millard-trained gelding was badly blocked for a run, causing him to check off heels, where he flashed home to finish a narrow second. He’ll win a race very soon. #4 Win Win has finished runner over up this course and distance three times. He’ll get his chance with Zac Purton engaged to ride. #14 Flying Noble gets down in the weights with 114lb on his back as well as Matthew Poon’s claim (-3lb). He’s a dual Class 5 winner who should get his chance.

Race 3: The Sprint Cup

G2 Sprint Cup sees a small, but competitive field go around the 1200m at Sha Tin. Siding with #1 Mr Stunning who has won back-to-back G1 Hong Kong Sprints. He finished second to Beat The Clock in the Centenary Sprint Cup, however he can turn the tables on him here. Mr Stunning is expected to use his pace to control the race from the front, which should see him catch this field flat-footed. #2 Beat The Clock slots in for second. G1 winner who has won seven from 19. He needs a sit and sprint race which in a small field is hard to predict. #4 Winner’s Way is a G3 winner over 1200m at Sha Tin. This race drops away outside the top two, but he’s capable of finding the placings. #3 Rattan is an honest galloper. He’s better suited to 1400m and beyond, but if the pace is fast then he’ll get his chance to run on.

Race 4: Peel Handicap

Paul O’Sullivan is on fire at present and the handler has #4 Grade One stepping out for him here. The drop in distance to 1200m suits and from the draw, he should get the gun run under Karis Teetan. #6 Smart Leader finished third in his most recent outing. He’s winless from 11 starts, but gets Moreira on again and he has plenty of upside. #2 Best Alliance had excuses on debut. He’ll use the gate (5) to sit on the speed, expect improvement. #8 Green Card has turned his form around across his last two starts (2: 1-1-0). The inside draw isn’t ideal for him, but he’s not without claims.

Race 5: Severn Handicap

#13 Wayfoong Charmer closed for fourth last start at Sha Tin (1000m). Following that run he was subsequently withdrawn due to being lame, but followed that up with a competitive fourth on the dirt in a trial. He’s ready to step up to 1400m in what is, a fairly weak Class 4. #9 Dragon Dance should find the rail and lead from the draw (6). He scored at 70-1 two starts ago before fading to finish seventh last start. He’ll make his own luck and if he’s in front alone, get his chance to control the tempo to suit himself. #2 Play Wise has placed in his last two starts. He’s winless in Hong Kong from 14 starts, but he’s suited by a drop back to 1400m and the booking of Zac Purton is a sign of intent from handler Dennis Yip. #1 Guy Dragon got off the mark for a maiden Hong Kong win last start. He’s been handed top weight (133lb) duties, but he’s open to further improvement.

Race 6: Pollock Handicap

Taking a chance with #12 War Lord on debut for Size/Moreira. Based at Conghua this gelding looked impressive in a recent trial and he’s doing everything to suggest that he is forward enough to win at his first race day appearance. #4 Glenealy Generals won on debut last start up the straight. He’s capable of winning again, as long as he handles the step up to 1200m. #3 Silver Fig gave away a head start in his most recent performance to finish second on the dirt. He’s a turf winner over 1200m at Sha Tin. Expect improvement. #9 Diamond Brilliant placed third on debut. He’s a must-include for exotics.

Race 7: The Chairman’s Trophy

#1 Beauty Generation is the clear top pick. A winner of his last seven races including his last three at G1 level. He’s Hong Kong’s Horse of the Year who should be able to score a dominant win. #3 Conte should improve over the mile. One of the biggest horses in Hong Kong, the powerful galloper gave every indication that the extra furlong on offer would suit off a last-start placing over 1400m. #8 Mission Tycoon led and won at 91-1 two starts ago. He’ll do the same again and give himself every chance to fall into the placings. #9 Rise High was a last start Class 1 winner. His latest trial was impressive, but this is a bridge too far.

Race 8: Homestead Handicap

Difficult race with very little splitting #3 Styling City, #5 Full Of Beauty and #7 Refined Treasure. Siding with #5 Full Of Beauty to score his sixth consecutive win. He’s responded to every challenge thrown at him and although this will be his toughest test to date, he’s shown no signs of training off and from the draw (2) he should get all the favours. #7 Refined Treasure slots in for second. He’s an enormous talent who was a dominant winner over 1000m up the straight. Queries however with him going around the bend, considering he is untested over 1200m and the knee issues he has previously had are a slight concern. #3 Styling City made ground late in the G1 Centenary Sprint Cup. He’s another who is more effective over 1000m, but his recent trial was impressive, so he’s a factor. #10 Water Diviner the best of the rest following a last-start second to Full Of Beauty.

Race 9: Harlech Handicap

HK Derby runner up #2 Waikuku slots in for first. Narrowly missed in that race last start and finds this much easier. Scored four consecutive wins prior to his runner up effort. #4 Dark Dream won at his second start in Hong Kong over 2000m at Sha Tin. He travelled wide in his most recent start to finish fourth. He’ll bounce back with a good run. #7 Victory Boys has crafted an impressive record (34: 7-8-5) for trainer David Hall. He’ll be thereabouts under the hands Neil Callan. #9 Helene Charisma is another who has relished life at Conghua. He’s won his last two at Happy Valley and although this is a sharp step up in class, he shouldn’t be underestimated.

Race 10: Plantation Handicap

#11 Invincible Missile was narrowly run down by Super Star last start. He’ll get his chance to atone for that performance here. Strong booking of Moreira and the draw (8) should see him on the speed early. #13 Craig’s Star displayed an excellent turn of foot to win in Class 4 last start. He steps up to Class 3, which is a slight concern, but he has ability. #1 Noble Steed has finished runner up in three of his last four stars. He’ll need to lug 133lb to victory, but Zac Purton should ensure that he gets every chance. #3 Magnificent will lead from the draw. He dead-heated two starts ago as a 188-1 chance. Dylan Mo will find the front and make his own luck in the running.