Declan Schuster Sha Tin selections and analysis for Sunday, March 10, 2019

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, March 10, 2019)

RACE 1: #4 Gunnison, #2 Wishful Thinker, #3 Jolly Banner, #1 Winner’s Way

RACE 2: #4 King’s Man, #8 Holy Unicorn, #2 Remarkable, #11 The Joy Of Giving

RACE 3: #2 Chairman Lo, #1 Seventy Seventy, #10 Smart Rocket, #3 Golden Four
RACE 4: #9 Fun Times, #7 Dragon Dance, #11 Manful Star, #12 Deal Maker
RACE 5: #4 Beauty Charisma, #2 Seven Heavens, #12 Goko, #13 Multimillion
RACE 6: #4 Brave Baby, #9 Grand Harbour, #1 Winner Supreme, #3 Dr Proactive

RACE 7: #2 Silver Fig, #10 Tom’s Dragon, #8 Borntoachieve, #1 All You Need

RACE 8: #5 What Else But You, #7 Morethanlucky, #4 Simply Brilliant, #2 Dinozzo

RACE 9: #2 Elusive State, #6 Glorious Artist, #5 Raging Blitzkrieg, #4 King Genki

RACE 10: #6 Champion’s Way, #11 Solar Wai Wai, #2 Prance Dragon, #3 Hard Promise

RACE 11: #12 Home Run, #5 Not Usual Talent, #13 Witness Hunter, #6 Cordyceps

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RACE 1: FLAMINGO FLOWER HANDICAP

Competitive four horse affair where tactics are likely to play a big role. #4 Gunnison got off the mark two starts ago on the dirt before finishing third behind Wishful Thinker at Happy Valley. He can turn the tables on Wishful Thinker in this, as this race won’t be run at a breakneck speed and if he’s in the right spot, he’ll catch them flat footed. #2 Wishful Thinker has won three of his last four starts. He’s in career-best form, but this race might not be run to suit, as it could be run at a crawl which will likely take away from his fast closing speed. #3 Jolly Banner scored a shock 89-1 win two starts ago up the straight before finishing unplaced over 1400m. He’ll be thereabouts in the small field. #1 Winner’s Way won first up at Sha Tin (1200m). He’s mixed his form since, but his rating of 120 holds him in very good stead for this.

RACE 2: FREESIA HANDICAP

#4 King’s Man finished only half a length off the winner in his latest at Happy Valley (1800m). He sat closer to the speed that day which clearly suited him and from the draw (3) he should be able to do the exact same again. #8 Holy Unicorn comes into this having won four from five this season. He’s a winner of his last two on the dirt and he should be much improved stepping back up to 1800m from 1650m. #2 Remarkable is searching for his first win this season. He’s a three-time winner on the dirt and although he hasn’t won this season, he still commands plenty of respect. #11 The Joy Of Giving has already notched up two wins this season for trainer Michael Chang and although his only previous run on the dirt saw him finish near last, he brings much better form in this time. He’s a major player.

RACE 3: GERANIUM HANDICAP

#2 Chairman Lo stuck on well for third last start in a leader’s dominated race. He’ll be much better ridden off the speed from the draw (10) where Zac Purton can ensure that he gets his chance to run over the top of them. He has more improvement to come. #1 Seventy Seventy drops back into Class 4 from Class 3 where he finished unplaced in two runs. He was a first up winner in Class 4 at Sha Tin (1200m) and on his previous form he commands respect, even with 133lb on his back. #10 Smart Rocket got his win two starts ago over this course and distance before finishing near last in his latest. He has claims. #3 Golden Four has turned his form around. He’ll be thereabouts for jockey Umberto Rispoli.

RACE 4: GERANIUM HANDICAP

Competitive Class 4 with very little splitting them. #9 Fun Times rates highly from his fast-finishing second place that he managed two starts ago. He’s much better ridden off the speed and although he is winless from six starts in Hong Kong, he should get his chance on Sunday. #7 Dragon Dance registered a shock 70-1 win last start over this course and distance. He’s the likely leader under Alvin Ng, which is where all three of his wins across his career have come from. #11 Manful Star gets a handy claim from Matthew Poon (-3lb). He’s mixed his form, but he should sit closer to the speed in this and get every chance. #12 Deal Maker has placed in his last three starts. He’ll need to transfer that form to the dirt from the turf, but he appears capable, especially with only 118lb on his back.

RACE 5: HYACINTH HANDICAP

#4 Beauty Charisma comes into his Hong Kong debut following an impressive two length trial win, where he led under Zac Purton and gave a nice kick to score. Previously known as Fifth Amendment in Australia, he was a two-time winner down under and since arriving in Hong Kong, he’s shown that he is forward enough to be competitive on debut. #2 Seven Heavens turned his form around last start to finish a narrow second. He’s winless from 13 starts, but he does get his chance here. #12 Goko is a three-time winner from 17 starts. He made ground from out wide last start at Happy Valley and off that, he could be value for exotics. #13 Multimillion will make his own luck in the lead. He steps up from Class 4 to Class 3 which is always very difficult, but his forward style of racing holds him in very good stead for this.

RACE 6: KALANCHOE HANDICAP

#4 Brave Baby has taken a while to get himself going, but his last two starts have seen him register a win and a narrow second. He struggled last time he raced on the dirt, but he comes into this with career-best form behind him, which should see him get his chance. #9 Grand Harbour led and faded to ninth last start, but the race prior he stuck gamely to finish second. He’ll get his chance to return to his best, especially if he takes up the running again. #1 Winner Supreme brings the best turf form to this. He’ll need to handle the transition to the dirt, but he has won a trial on the dirt, suggesting that the transition to the dirt will pose no threat to his winning chances. He’ll be on the speed where he can make his own luck. #3 Dr Proactive should be thereabouts for trainer Jimmy Ting.

RACE 7: KALANCHOE HANDICAP

#2 Silver Fig is one from one. He won nicely on debut for trainer Tony Millard and he appears to have returned in very good order, as his latest trial saw him finish an eye-catching midfield under a strong hold from Karis Teetan. His class should take him a long way and he only needs to handle the surface to be winning. #10 Tom’s Dragon is nearing a win. He’s placed in three of his last four starts and he has the race-fitness on his side to finally breakthrough for a win. #8 Borntoachieve has the runs on the board this campaign without winning. He’s another who is fit and ready to finally breakthrough for a win. He’ll be on the speed early under Silvestre de Sousa. #1 All You Need was withdrawn from his latest due to a swollen left hind cannon. His three runs prior to that have been good enough to suggest that he could finish inside the top four, especially as he has placed on the dirt in a trial behind Lean Perfection - who is a winner of four from 10.

RACE 8: LAVENDER HANDICAP

#5 What Else But You was simply dominant when winning The Chinese New year Cup. He beat a small but competitive field that day, close to what he meets here. Strong booking of Zac Purton suggests that John Size has him pegged to win back-to-back races. #7 Morethanlucky has an imposing record over 1600m at Sha Tin, as three of his five career wins have come over it. He drops 12lb off his last-start fourth for this and Frankie Lor appears to have him in very good order at present. #4 Simply Brilliant is the second of the Frankie Lor duo. He scored two impressive wins before finishing a narrow fourth at G1 level behind Exultant in The Hong Kong Gold Cup. He’s a major player, especially with the G1 form behind him. #2 Dinozzo has placed in his last two starts. He’s one for the exotics.

RACE 9: THE LUSITANO CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP)

Tony Millard has turned #2 Elusive State’s form around, having won his last five starts in a row. He’s gone to a new level since switching stables to Millard and his last three wins on the dirt have been visually impressive. His last win resulted in him being handed 13 points on the ratings scale taking him to 93, and scarily enough this figure is expected to grow. #6 Glorious Artist was well supported into clear favouritism, but he wound up going down by a neck to finish second. He clearly has admirers and off his last-start second, he shapes as the main danger to Elusive State’s unbeaten 18/19 season. #5 Raging Blitzkrieg has been consistent this season even though he has only recorded the sole win from nine starts. He’ll be thereabouts. #4 King Genki led and won well in his latest. He’ll make his own luck on the speed and he could be one for the exotics.

RACE 10: ONCIDIUM HANDICAP

#6 Champion’s Way is two from two across his short career. He makes his Class 3 debut off the back his dominant two length win in Class 4 at Happy Valley. He’ll be suited by the spacious Sha Tin and this appears to be his race to lose. #11 Solar Wai Wai is a legitimate contender to Champion’s Way and this appears to be a race in two. He was cramped for room in the straight last start, but when he got clear running room over the final 100m, he knuckled down nicely and was unlucky not to have won the race. #2 Prance Dragon dead-heated in his latest with Key Witness. He’ll get his chance from the inside draw (1). #3 Hard Promise sat on the speed in his latest to register his second Hong Kong win. Dylan Mo’s claim (-5lb) gets him in well at the weights and he should be able to set the pace for trainer Benno Yung.

RACE 11: PRIMULA HANDICAP

#12 Home Run flashed home last start to finish sixth. He finished only a length behind the winner (Right Choice) that day, and this is a strong form-race as Right Choice has won four from five across his short career in Hong Kong. #5 Not Usual Talent flashed home to finish second in his latest at a whopping 274-1. He commands respect off that run, especially if he gets a tempo run to suit those off the speed. #13 Witness Hunter is a two-time winner in Hong Kong. He was well beaten last start at Happy Valley, but he’s a much better Sha Tin horse and under Karis Teetan he should be able to return to form. #6 Cordyceps won well last start and prior to that, he notched up a consistent four placings. He’ll be flashing home late under Silvestre de Sousa, but there is concern about whether makes it in time.