Dayton: Analysis for Saturday's Grand Circuit stakes

Dayton Raceway will present its richest card of 2020 with over $1 million up for grabs across 14 races on Saturday, October 3. The highlight of the program are a trio of Grand Circuit races for older horses on the trot and pace. Post time for the first race is 6:15 PM.

Below is a horse-by-horse look at the ultra-competitive Dayton Pacing Derby along with selections and analysis for the other two major stakes races.

Race 12 - $176,500 Dayton Pacing Derby

This group of older pacers has been taking turns beating each other all year, so it's best to avoid the favorite. It really is a wonderful race with a number of playable contenders.

(1) BACKSTREET SHADOW was used hard at Hoosier last time and paid the price but now shifts back to his favorite-sized track. He has 12 wins in 14 starts over the last two years on a five-eighths oval.

(2) SECTIONLINE BIGRY is a hard-knocking son of Pet Rock who has been a win-machine in Ohio with 26 victories in 62 career starts. I'm concerned that his off-the-pace style won’t serve him well versus this much tougher company.

(3) BETTOR'S WISH is the best horse when on his game and the return qualifier was solid. Do you want to play him off a four-week break as the potential favorite?

(4) CENTURY FARROH’s night ended early at Hoosier last time when he got away near the back of the pack. A better post this week could mean more aggressive early tactics.

(5) DANCIN LOU wasn't great or bad in that same Hoosier race after missing 20 days. He’s one that seems to do his best work when used hard and maybe driver Brian Sears will put him in play earlier this time.

(6) OCEAN ROCK takes on older foes after dominating Ohio sophomores. It's hard to say that he is good enough to tackle this seasoned group of pacers, but he has tons of early speed and should be heard from, likely at an underlay on the toteboard.

(7) THIS IS THE PLAN got a great trip and pulled off a major upset in the Hoosier Park Pacing Derby. Is he rounding into top form or was that race a fluke due to a good trip?

(8) BLLACK HOLE is versatile and has already proven himself in the Graduate series. If the trip works out, he wouldn't be the biggest surprise at huge odds.

(9) OUR MAJORDAN A has the early speed to mix it up early but seems likely to have too much company to try those tactics. Settling in and picking up some pieces seems like the most likely outcome.

SELECTIONS: 1-5-3-4

Race 8 - $175,000 Dayton Distaff Pacing Derby

We must all answer a big question here. Can (2) SHARTIN lose this race? She’s definitely the best mare in the field, but you are looking at a short price on a horse that hasn't raced in seven weeks. I have to take a shot against her and my potion of choice is (3) CAVIART ALLY. The 6-year-old gave Shartin all she could handle on a number of ocassions last year and she seems to be rounding into form. Two starts back she was a bit short and last time she had too far to come after a second-tier starting slot. Let's expect early speed here.

SELECTIONS: 3-2-4-6

Race 10 - $175,000 Dayton Trotting Derby

After watching multiple replays and some careful thought I’ve landed on longshot (7) CRYSTAL FASHION for one major reason: Lack of trust in the favorites. "Fashion" closed from last to be fourth in the Caesars Trotting Derby last time and was even in the Maple Leaf prior to that. He's as fast as anyone off the gate and I'm hoping that Jordan Stratton will have the gas pedal down at the start since I don't expect (4) MANCHEGO or (3) ATLANTA TO BE showing early speed. The former is reportedly switching to an open bridle and seems like to see off-the-pace tactics after some failed attempts on the front and a recent break when she was too fired up. The latter has proven lately that her game requires a decent trip to win against this top level.

SELECTIONS: 7-4-3-1