Davidowitz's Arkansas Derby analysis

Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park, April 12, 2014
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

In a “do or die” Kentucky Derby qualifying race for seven of the eight starters, the Todd Pletcher-trained Danza skimmed the rail coming out of the final turn to post a 41-1 upset over Ride On Curlin. Both the top two finishers earned spots in America’s most famous race, while highly touted Bayern finished third as the 8-5 betting favorite.

Danza, making only his fourth career start, his second of the year, his first beyond seven furlongs and first around two turns, scored by a widening 4 3/4 lengths under a sharp ride by veteran Joe Bravo. The victory gives Pletcher his fourth probable Kentucky Derby starter in a field that will be limited to 20.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Before the Arkansas Derby, Pletcher already had Florida Derby winner Constitution in the Derby field, along with Risen Star winner Intense Holiday and Spiral Stakes winner We Miss Artie.

Second-place finisher Ride On Curlin, game as always, raced in midpack and fought hard while wide and losing ground through the final three furlongs to catch front-running Bayern by a half-length for second and earn his way into the Derby starting field.

Bayern, trying to make up for interrupted training time, showed good overall speed in the Arkansas Derby, his third career start, through a moderate six furlongs in 1:12.29 when pressed by longshot Thundergram. Turning into the stretch, Bayern had shaken off Thundergram but began to weaken. Frankly, I thought he did well just to clearly take third over 2-1 shot Tapiture.

The final time for the winner was 1:49.68, good for a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. By comparison, it was only .13 slower than the top 4-year-old Will Take Charge needed to cover the same nine furlongs in the Oaklawn Handicap earlier on the card.

While Tapiture already had clinched a spot in the Derby by virtue of his win in the Southwest Stakes in February and his second in the Rebel on March 15, he turned in a disappointing, relatively flat final quarter-mile to finish fourth on Saturday.

Danza was a major surprise to all but a few people who analyzed the Arkansas Derby before it was run. Pletcher however, said he put the grandson of Street Cry in the race because, he “always thought he had the talent to be a good horse,” and because “he was showing signs of improvement in his training” at the Palm Meadows training facility. Danza, in fact, had four positive workouts after he finished an evenly paced third in a seven-furlong sprint on a glib track at Gulfstream Park on March 1.

That March 1 sprint was the first outing of the year for Danza and it occurred seven months after he had finished strongly for third in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special at 6 1/2 furlongs.

Bravo saved ground stalking the pace set by Bayern and Thundergram through moderate splits of 23.72 and 47.71 and six furlongs in 1:12.19. Bravo was able to navigate his mount inside contenders coming out of the final turn to take the suspense out of the race by the furlong pole.

While Bayern raced comfortably while dealing with Thundergram and was able to take a short lead midway through the final turn, he seemed “short” for the full nine furlongs and could not keep his stride together while battling Ride On Curlin through the final yards.

For future reference, here are some comments on the four horses who finished out of the money in this race.

Conquest Titan, a promising second to Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull stakes at Gulfstream, Jan. 25, failed to improve when fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby and failed to sustain his rally once in striking position at the top of the stretch in this race. Seems a cut below Grade 1 quality, but would be a threat in any Grade 3 route with a probable pace meltdown.

Commissioner, a two-time winner at nine furlongs against weaker and a fair third to Chitu and Midnight Hawk in the Sunland Derby, never posed a threat here and probably will need a drop in class and a hotly contested pace.

Thundergram tired badly in this spot, but he had held well for top-three finishes in four of his five previous route races, against weaker foes. Of equal import, he has very good wet track form, and he might encounter an off track in Kentucky or New York later this season.

Strong Mandate, who showed good form at Saratoga last year and was third in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last fall, was wide while making his move to contention approaching the far turn, but tired badly to last, as if something physical might be going on. At his best, he figures to be competitive with this caliber, but he might need a freshening.