Dave Litfin's Belmont Stakes analysis

AMERICAN PHAROAH took blinkers off after his debut and has since won six races in a row – five of them Grade 1 stakes – at distances ranging from seven to 10 furlongs. Along the way, he has beaten everyone in this field at least once by margins of three to 12 lengths. These accomplishments have been delivered with push-button tractability. He won the Kentucky Derby from post 15 with an outside stalking trip; he won the stormy Preakness by gunning to the lead from a waterlogged rail, switching off for a breather down the backstretch and galloping away again late. Two superlative workouts have followed, and the grandson of 2003 Belmont winner Empire Maker appears to be holding up well through the rigors of the Triple Crown quest.

Based on his late-rallying fourth in the Derby, FROSTED has to find a little more than three lengths on American Pharoah, not out of the question given a forward-moving line of development since a minor throat procedure and the addition of blinkers following the Fountain of Youth. His profile is very similar to that of last year’s Derby fourth, Wicked Strong, who was then beaten less than two lengths in the Belmont. Both were one-mile maiden winners in October, and they were beaten a half-length in the Remsen right after that before going to Florida for two races and returning to capture the Wood Memorial with virtually identical Beyer Speed Figures. Projecting improvement for offspring of Tapit through the second half of their 3-year-old seasons and beyond has been known to pay dividends.

MATERIALITY went from an unraced maiden to a Grade 1 winner in 11 weeks and then suffered his first defeat in the Derby when off hesitantly and denied his customary spot near the front. Even so, he was a length ahead of Frosted at the second call and then lost 10 positions and several lengths to that rival by the pre-stretch call before an after-the-fact move through a pedestrian final quarter. He moves to the outside after five weeks off. The colt who boasts the fastest Beyer in the division, Materiality can be familiarly described as “fresh, fit, and dangerous.”

MADEFROMLUCKY comes out of a grinding effort in the Peter Pan, which is the same route Commissioner used last year when he nearly became Todd Pletcher’s third Belmont winner since 2007.