Dave Litfin: Use exotics to maximize returns on your best Breeders' Cup opinions

Wading through a sea of unfamiliar names from far and wide, it’s possible to make a case for the majority of horses entered in the 14 Breeders’ Cup races. Unlike typical races where no-hopers are matter-of-factly whittled away, easy throw-outs are few and far between. Practically all have impressed onlookers in their workouts and gallops – standard operating procedure for the classiest Thoroughbreds.

Owners, breeders, trainers, public prognosticators, weekend warriors and backstretch insiders will pontificate on the outcomes, and we’ll be wrong more often than not. Many agree on obvious standouts, but otherwise opinions diverge widely.

If the 30th Breeders’ Cup is like the preceding ones, several dark horses will get the money at boxcar odds. A constructive initial overview of these fascinating races aims to categorize their degree of difficulty and ascertain where they might be hiding. Which favorites look solid? Are high-profile contenders on shaky ground? Which races are most competitive and which are inscrutable? It’s impossible (or folly) to have a strong opinion on every race, but merely knowing where you’re indeed lost at sea is a helpful first step.

Fortunately, as vexing as things might seem, one or two good ideas – clever or not – can be all it takes for a winning weekend, due to the leverage exotic wagers can provide.

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You didn’t need Nostradamus-like powers to predict Groupie Doll’s win in last year’s Filly and Mare Sprint at odds-on. The lead-pipe cinch might have been linked to the more competitive Juvenile Turf, Dirt Mile, and Turf Sprint for ($1) pick three payoffs of $380 and $390. No crystal ball was needed to see Shanghai Bobby winning the Juvenile at a miserly $4.60, yet he was part of $931, $730 and $625 pick three paydays.

In multi-race exotics, take a stand with your best opinions, cover surrounding legs as thoroughly as finances allow, and presto, you may be looked upon as some kind of handicapping magician.

Thanks to dime superfectas and 50-cent trifectas, vertical exotics can be covered more comprehensively by budget-minded bettors than in seasons past. Consider a “pyramiding” strategy that focuses on one or two key contenders to win, with coverage that expands through successive positions, such as a trifecta spread of 2-5-8, or a dime super of 2-5-8-all. (You Super High 5 players are on your own.)

In race order, a few thoughts from an initial pass, and post-draw reactions are applicable.

Marathon: Half the field has run for a tag, including Cease, who comes off a seven-furlong win and now goes twice that far. The big X-factor is Ever Rider, the 7-2 morning-line favorite from Argentina, who attempts to follow in country-mate Calidoscopio’s footsteps.

Juvenile Turf: What can (Chad) Brown do for you? From 11 Breeders’ Cup entrants, Bobby’s Kitten looks like his strongest chance. The Europeans lack experience on left-handed courses other than second choice Giovanni Boldini, whose two wins were on synthetic.

Dirt Mile: This race got more chaotic with each passing day, with Graydar withdrawn early in the week and top contenders Verrazano, Pants On Fire, and Goldencents landing posts 10-11-12. Dirt Mile faves are 0 for 6, none better than third.

Juvenile Fillies Turf : A full gate of 14 2-year-old fillies, only three of which have traversed the Santa Anita course. Invaders from England, France, and Ireland have requisite credentials, including tepid 4-1 choice Vorda. Second choice My Conquestadory got a ruinous draw.

Distaff: The shortest field of all, but no easy tosses other than Street Girl in a stellar renewal. The last time Bill Mott didn’t win this race was 2009, when his Mushka ran second at 16-1.

Juvenile Fillies: The lack of two-turn experience for top-fig runners Artemis Agrotera and slow-breaking Sweet Reason opens things up for the locally based contingent. Favorites (17 for 29) have historically been good.

Filly and Mare Turf: A lot of multi-race bettors who tip-toe in and out of this leg alive to Dank and Romantica will be satisfied with that coverage (this one included). Beneath them lies a bevy of horseflesh with virtually identical peak grass figures.

Filly and Mare Sprint: What to make of defending champion Groupie Doll is one of the weekend’s fascinating aspects. Her “A” race demolishes these; otherwise . . .?

Turf Sprint: In his latest book, The Complete Handicapper (DRF Press), James Quinn advises tossing American-based horses aged 4 and up without proven form on the quirky downhill layout. That only narrows things down to last year’s top three finishers, and several others that ran big over the course in the Eddie D.

Juvenile: The 5-2 choice, Havana, ran a 102 Beyer in his Saratoga debut, followed by a 93 in the Champagne – reminiscent of Uncle Mo, who followed a similar schedule (102 and 94) for Todd Pletcher before winning the 2010 Juvenile with a 108. He’ll have to be freaky from the 13-hole.

Turf: The cagey Mike Smith did his best impression of Ramon Dominguez getting Little Mike to relax five weeks ago. The first two morning-line choices, The Fugue and Point of Entry, were the 2012 Cup’s unluckiest beaten favorites.

Sprint: The untimely demise of Points Offthebench casts a pall over this race, with Private Zone inheriting the role of a slight favorite over Justin Phillip based on their Vosburgh skirmish. The break is key, and possibilities abound.

Mile: At even money on the line, Wise Dan is the shortest-priced favorite of this Breeders Cup. To repeat, he must overtake Obviously and Silver Max, and hold off the cavalry late. Olympic Glory, back in two weeks after adding blinkers for his second Group 1 win, is okay with firm ground.

Classic: Last year’s top four finishers and beaten favorite Game On Dude meet again. The 6-year-old Game On Dude is quoted at 8-5 for his third try in a race that has yet to be won by a horse more than 5 years old. By that yardstick, if the Dude can’t abide, neither can Flat Out, Ron the Greek or Planteur.