Crystal ball needed to decipher turf dash

Horseplayers are accustomed to guesswork when handicapping races for 2-year-olds at this time of year since many of the competitors have raced very little or not at all. But sometimes even races for older horses force bettors to speculate more than usual. And that is true of Sunday’s fifth race at Gulfstream Park, a $32,000, five-furlong turf dash for first-level allowance horses that carries a $25,000 claiming condition.

Horseplayers must guess how the barn change off the claim of Statutorial will affect his performance, how Dedicated to Bob will perform off a short layoff, and how Troubles Comin and Roman’s Avenue will handle a sharp cutback in distance from 1 1/16 miles.

The uncertainties don’t end there. Big Grandpa owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, an 83, but has gone unplaced in two starts on grass – though one of his turf efforts was respectable. Going way back to April 2012, he ran fifth, beaten a half-length, in a money allowance sprinting on grass.

Key contenders

Roman’s Avenue (Last 3 Beyers: 72-79-41)

◗ Although accustomed to running longer distances, he has shown a high degree of speed in his last two races by running off to commanding leads on turf.

◗ He comes out of a surprisingly tough race Jan. 28. He finished sixth behind Hey Leroy – a starter horse, yes, but also the winner of the Grade 3 Appleton stakes in March at Gulfstream.

Statutorial (Last 3 Beyers: 71-83-74)

◗ Makes his first start off the claim by trainer Sandino Hernandez Jr., who has compiled a 10-1-0-4 record with first-after-claim runners over the past five years. A $2 wager on the 10 runners would have returned an average of only $1.

◗ Difficult to assess his fitness because he has not started since finishing third June 1, and he shows just one three-furlong work since.

Dedicated to Bob (75-73-62)

◗ Like Statutorial, he is unraced since June 1, when he was second in the same race in which Statutorial was third.

◗ His trainer, Douglas Potter, is 1 for 28 over the past five years with horses racing on 31-60 days’ rest.

Troubles Comin (73-67-80)

◗ Though largely campaigned as a router in 2014, he has three victories in five-furlong turf dashes at Calder, all in first-level allowances with a $16,000 claiming condition.