Crist: Woodward Stakes Analysis

Five of the last 10 winners of the G1 Woodward Stakes have gone on to be named Horse of the Year, and two others have been voted champion older male. I will be surprised if the race produces either this year.

With Palace Malice, Will Take Charge and Lea sitting this one out, Moreno is the 2-1 favorite to add the Woodward to his victory in the Whitney four weeks ago. He was good that day, and it will be no shock if he wiries the field again since the race is only nine furlongs, well within his wheelhouse. He also shapes up as a serious underlay.

The problem is that the Whitney was only his third victory in 20 career starts, and 3-for-20 horses are neither champions nor good bets as 2-1 favorites. It’s the lowest winning percentage in the field.

Another reason to oppose him is the prospect of a different pace scenario from the Whitney, where Moreno was clear at every call and Itsmyluckyday chased him around the track while only mildly gaining. Today Itsmyluckyday drew the rail and is adding blinkers, suggesting he may be more prominently placed from the outset. If he and the headstrong Moreno hook up early, the race could become a closers’ paradise.

That’s why I’m going to cast a wide net in this Woodward in hopes of catching a price. Two who will be on my tickets are Romansh (8-1 morning-line with entrymate Long River) and Prayerforrelief at 12-1. Romansh is a maddeningly inconsistent horse who did little against these in his last two starts. His prior third in the Met Mile, however, makes him a serious contender. Prayerforrelief is probably not good enough to win a G1 under normal circumstances, but might come lumbering along late if the race melts down.