Crist: Whitney preview
I’ve written elsewhere about my ongoing fascination with, and allegiance to, Honor Code. I’ll be rooting for him down the stretch. As a practical, parimutuel matter, however, I can’t single him in my pick-anythings.
He’ll win this with a repeat of his jaw-dropping Met Mile victory, but there is legitimate doubt, even in his own connections’ minds, about whether he can be as effective at two turns as one. He won the Remsen at 2, but that race was run so slowly early that this deep closer was on the pace all the way.
His two most recent two-turn tries were duds but deserve asterisks for ambiguity. He was beaten 10 lengths by Social Inclusion going two turns at Gulfstream in his 3-year-old debut, but Social Inclusion set a track record while loose on the lead. In the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day, Honor Code was so uncharacteristically dull that you have to wonder if it was the Churchill surface rather than the number of turns that stopped him.
This is a very strong Whitney, featuring seven Grade 1 winners in a field of nine where everyone has run triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. Cases can be made for many on their best days, but the horse I’ll be using in equal strength with Honor Code is Lea, who looks a very square price at 9-2 on the morning line. He just missed nailing Noble Bird in his first start back from Dubai last time out and should move forward off that race. He has a perfect stalking style for how the race sets up and should be just off Moreno and Liam’s Map in the early going.
Tonalist, last year’s Belmont and Travers stakes winner, is the last man standing among last year’s Big Four 3-year-olds, with California Chrome and Shared Belief out for the season and Bayern a ghost of his former self. He obviously is good enough on his best day but was unimpressive in his last two starts, blown away by Honor Code in the Met Mile and then a very disappointing second in the Suburban Handicap to Effinex at 2-5. It’s also worrisome that his two starts at Saratoga last summer were two of his weaker efforts of the season. As the 4-1 second choice, he is best used defensively.
One longshot who should be considered, at least for the bottom slots of intra-race exotics, is Wicked Strong if he’s anywhere near his morning-line price of 20-1. He is 2 for 3 at today’s nine-furlong distance (2014 Wood Memorial and Jim Dandy) and finished in front of Tonalist in both of his Saratoga starts last year.
