Crist: Whitney Handicap Analysis

The $1.5 million Whitney Stakes at Saratoga Saturday has a completely legitimate even-money morning-line favorite in Palace Malice, widely considered the nation’s top racehorse after a 4-for-4 4-year-old season including a victory in the Met Mile last time out. He’s in career form, is training sharply, and to my mind faces only one dangerous opponent: Will Take Charge, with whom he swapped decisions in last year’s Jim Dandy and Travers over this track.

After a strong summer and fall that made him the nation’s champion 3-year-old, Will Take Charge has had a rougher go of things as a 4-year-old, winning just one of five starts. His last two efforts received Beyer Speed figures of under 100 after eight straight triple-digit efforts. He has not been at his very best, but has been better than 1 for 5 might suggest: He has run 2nd in three Grade 1’s, the Donn, Big ‘Cap and Foster. He blossomed at Saratoga last year and has turned in three sharp workouts locally over the last three weeks. He may be ready to replicate his top form of last summer and fall.

One intriguing longshot is Bromansh, who throws in plenty of clunkers but has shown genuine Grade 1-level ability on his best days. I prefer him at 10-1 to 6-1 Departing, an accomplished gelding at the G2/G3 level but still a question mark against top company. There’s also going to be some support for Moreno, who was right there with the two favorites in the Jim Dandy and Travers, but who I an infrequent winner: He has lost nine straight starts since his lone stakes win, in the Dwyer.

My plan in multirace wagers such as the $750k guaranteed pick-4 pool is to go three-deep in the Whitney but weight those three differently – 5 units on Palace Malice, 3 on Will Take Charge, and one, just in case, on Bromansh.