Crist: Travers Stakes Analysis

There are years when the Travers is a fascinating puzzle with opportunities to find a competitive horse at a nice price, like Will Take Charge a year ago – a horse who was as good as anyone on paper and an inviting 10-1 on the board.

I do not believe this is one of those years.

This seems like a Travers with unusually sharp lines between the haves and the have-nots – as in have or have not got a chance. The three favorites – Bayern, Tonalist and Wicked Strong – simply tower over the field. Each has a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 dirt victory in a field where the other seven have combined for a single G3 dirt victory. They’re also the only three horses who have run Beyer Speed Figuires of over 100, and each has done it twice.

The only horse who offers a glimmer of an upset chance seems to be Mr. Speaker, if only because he’s a mystery on the dirt. He won the G1 Belmont Derby (formerly Jamaica) at 10 furlongs last month, but that was on the turf and his lone dirt try was a poor one. He seems to be the upset choice of everyone who insists on going against the three favorites, and I think he will end up an underlay as the fourth choice at around 8-1.

The others would have to improve a lot. Three of them emerge from the restricted Curlin Stakes, which came up a slow race a day before the Jim Dandy. I prefer Kid Cruz, a distant third in the Jim Dandy, to the Curlin runners – and he has six lengths to make up on Wicked Strong and Tonalist.

Bayern seems like an all or nothing proposition. He’s the fastest, most brilliant horse in the race, but he’s a big question mark at 10 furlongs. He was tremendous value at 9-2 in the Haskell last time, a shorter race against a weaker field on a speed-favoring track. Today he’s 2-1 against better going longer. I’ll use him in the pick-whatevers but not press him.

I’ll take Tonalist to turn the Jim Dandy tables on Wicked Strong, who got the the tactical jump last time. Tonalist was ridden as if the race were purely a prep for this and I expect him to move forward today to the level of his Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes.