Crist: Top choices look strong in Jim Dandy

Saturday’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga is down to a field of six with the early scratch of Cousin Stephen, who ran ninth in the Curlin Stakes on Friday. The remaining half-dozen fall into three groups of two – two favorites, two challengers, and two outsiders.

Tonalist (8-5 morning line) and Wicked Strong (2-1) are the only Grade 1 winners in the field and for that will carry 4 to 6 pounds more than the others. Both are making their first starts since running first and fourth in the Belmont Stakes on June 7. Prior to that, Tonalist won the Peter Pan Stakes, and Wicked Strong ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Wood Memorial.

While the Travers on Aug. 23 is obviously a larger target than today’s race, both are training as if they’ll run representative races today. One or the other is very likely to win the race.

Most bettors looking for alternatives will gravitate toward third and fourth morning-line choices Commanding Curve (5-1) and Kid Cruz (8-1). It is hard to endorse either today. Commanding Curve ran poorly in the Belmont, and despite his second in the Kentucky Derby, he remains a horse with a 1-for-8 record.

Kid Cruz is improving nicely but has never beaten horses with the quality of the two favorites. A confirmed one-run, late closer, he might also be compromised today by what could be a pedestrian pace.

The two outsiders, Legend (12-1) and Ulanbator (15-1), would have to improve mightily to contend for a victory but might offer more value underneath the favorites in exactas and trifectas than the third and fourth choices do. Each is lightly raced with upside, and both will be tuned up to run their best today and prove that they belong in the division’s bigger races, starting with the Travers.