Crist: Spinaway Stakes Analysis

Sunday’s featured Spinaway at Saratoga, the first Grade 1 of the year for 2-year-old fillies in New York, will go to the post without the winners of the two preps that preceded it, Fashion Alert (Schuylerville) and Cavorting (Adirondack). Instead, the three top contenders are Angela Renee, the Adirondack runner-up; Curalina, a top-figure maiden making her second start; and Condo Commando, a 12-length debut winner. They are virtually inseparable on Beyer Speed Figures: Curalina got an 87 in her debut while Angela Renee and Condo Commando both earned 85’s last time out.

I prefer Curalina, not because of those two points but because of her potential and running style. Curalina had a difficult trip in her debut, taking a while to find her best footing before rallying a bit too late behind the very impressive High Dollar Woman. She should improve with that race under her girth, and an 87 is a strong place from which to begin improving.

Condo Commando is also eligible to improve in her second start, but I want to see her do as well against serious competition as she did winning her debut against a weak field of maiden claimers. Angela Renee has met good fields twice, and is my second choice here.

Winter Dawn at 8-1 is worth considering for a inor award. She may have gotten more seasoning than any of today’s rivals winning a slug-it-out stretch duel in her debut and grittily prevailing in a three-way photo. She may not be quite as fast as the favorites, but she’ll be in there fighting if it’s a blanket finish.