Crist: Schuylerville analysis

With any luck, the opening-day Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes will be the smallest and apparently least competitive of the 33 graded stakes races scheduled to be run at this 40-day Saratoga meeting.

With a field of just five, the Schuylerville was moved all the way up to the third race on the Opening Day card to keep the short field from doing any more damage to the handle. (It normally would be run as the ninth on a 10-race card.)

From a speed-figure perspective, this is a two-filly race on paper. Fashion Alert and Tulira’s Star both earned Beyer Speed Figures of 88 winning their debuts last month, and their three rivals have yet to exceed a Beyer of 60. Unless they both misfire badly, it’s hard to see anyone else improving enough to win the race.

I strongly favor Fashion Alert to Tulira’s Star in the battle of 88s. This is hardly an unorthodox opinion, as Fashion Alert is 3-5 on the morning line with Tulira’s Star at 5-2. I think the discrepancy is justified for three reasons:

1. Fashion Alert made her winning debut start in the $100,000 Astoria Stakes at Belmont, while Tulira’s Star’s came in a $36,000 maiden race at Arlington.

2. Fashion Alert’s race was on dirt, today’s surface, while Tulira’s Star’s lone start came on Polytrack. We know Fashion Alert runs well on dirt, we’re guessing on Tulira’s Star.

3. Fashion Alert has been working extremely well since her race, earning the highest-grade workouts for anyone on today’s card from DRF clockers Mike Welsch and Mike Vesce. According to them, Fashion Alert “galloped out absolutely huge” while Tulira’s Star had “not much of a gallop-out.”

Tulira’s Star’s 28-point Beyer edge on the rest of the field might make her highly likely to run second to the deserving odds-on favorite, but maybe there’s an exacta play to be made against the second choice on the theory that she might be a Poly/grass horse who won’t love the dirt. If so, the right alternative could be Take Charge Brandi. Her winning 4 1/2-furlong debut at Churchill was on the slow side, but she is bred to improve with more distance.