Crist: Sanford analysis

The nine juveniles entered in Saturday’s Grade 3 Sanford Stakes, the first graded stakes of the year for 2-year-old males in New York, fall into three categories: The 1-2 finishers from Belmont’s Tremont Stakes June 20; the 1-2 finishers from the G3 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs June 28; and several second-time starters who won their debuts.

Of those three groups, I’m most impressed by the contingent of two emerging from the Bashford Manor, Cinco Charlie and Silverhill. They both ran well in a faster race than today’s opponents have yet to turn in, and both could thrive in a race that sets up differently from their last start.

In the Bashford Manor, both were making their second starts after winning their debuts. Cinco Charlie shot right to the lead, but Silverhill was soon at his throat from the outside and stayed there until Cinco Charlie finally edged away in the final 100 yards. The race got a Beyer Speed Figure of 81, better than anyone in today’s field has run. The winner was good to fight off the challenge, and the runner-up was good to stay with him for so long in what may not be his preferred running style. In his debut, Silverhill was able to rally from 5th place.

With a lot more early speed in the Sanford, Silverhill may revert to those tactics, trying to save ground from post 2 and then go after the leaders in the stretch. Cinco Charlie won’t get the lead to himself, but may have a tactical advantage with his outside draw as Shaun Bridgmohan can react to how the race develops inside him.

Bessie’s Boy won the Tremont by a much wider six lengths over Chocolate Wildcat, but the race came up with only a Beyer of 72 and the front-running winner was clear at every call.

As for the second-timers, Nonna’s Boy ran the best debut figure (74) while drawing away as a 1-10 favorite, but it’s hard to gauge the effort because it came on a muddy track and he has strong wet-track pedigree. He may be an underlay today due to the Repole/Pletcher connections. While he’s eligible to move forward, his debut was not a dazzler on the order of an Uncle Mo or Havana.