Crist: Lake Placid preview
In the Belmont Oaks on July 4, won in a runaway by Lady Eli, there was a virtual triple dead heat for fourth. Strict Compliance and Senterio Italia finished in an actual dead heat for fourth, with Consumer Credit just a neck behind them in sixth. Now, those three return as the favorites in a field of five for the Grade 2 Lake Placid, the Friday feature at Saratoga.
They’re obviously very difficult to separate. Of the three, I lean toward Senterio Italia, who was much closer to a blistering early pace than the other two, who came from the clouds to pass tired ones late. The lean, however, is slight, and there are a couple of reasons to consider looking somewhere else for the Lake Placid winner.
First, it’s hard to believe entirely that all three of them ran Beyer Speed Figures that were six- to eight-point career tops in defeat. Lady Eli is a spectacular filly, but it’s also possible that those behind her were nothing special. When just 1 1/4 lengths separate the second- through seventh-place finishers in a race, it suggests that there may not have been a surfeit of quality behind the winner.
There are only two other directions to go against three favorites in a field of five. There’s Heath, Lea’s little sister. You may be tempted to make a big deal of the fact that she was beaten just half a length by Lady Eli in the Wonder Again Stakes, while today’s three favorites were farther behind Lady Eli in the Oaks, but resist the temptation. Lady Eli was not fully wound up for the Wonder Again, and she had a rough trip that dictated her narrow margin of victory.
That leaves Miss Temple City, who has a lot going for her in this spot. I wouldn’t have been surprised to see her installed as the morning-line favorite rather than the fourth choice. It’s her first start back from a trip to Royal Ascot in June, where she ran a very creditable fourth, beaten just two lengths at 50-1, in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. That may simply put her a notch above all four of today’s opponents, given the chasm between Group 1 European turf fillies and Grade 2/3 Americans. If Miss Temple City is anything close to her morning-line price of 4-1, she is an overlay.
The New York Racing Association needs to consider moving the Lake Placid, which is too close to the opening-day Lake George to attract any runbacks, when the two races should instead be a mini-series for the same candidates among the 3-year-old grass fillies. The schedule is the reason that today’s Grade 2 race has a field of just five.