Crist: Lake George analysis
Wednesday’s featured Grade 2 Lake George drew a nice field of 3-year-old turf fillies but ultimately is all about Daring Dancer. This daughter of Empire Maker looked like the division leader returning from a 2-for-2 juvenile campaign to win Keeneland’s Grade 3 Appalachian by 2 1/2 lengths, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 91 that would prevail today easily.
The problem – but also the reason she will be more like 8-5 than 3-5, is what happened last time out. In her fourth career start , she was the even-money favorite in the Wonder Again Stakes at Belmont on May 24 and showed nothing, running fifth of six from flag fall to finish line.
The Wonder Again had not initially been on Daring’s Dancer’s agenda; she was scratched from the Hilltop Stakes on Black-Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico on May 16 when heavy rain washed that race off the turf. Eight days later in the Wonder Again, the turf was officially labeled good and that’s the only thing trainer Graham Motion can think of to explain her dismal performance. If he’s right, she will be hard to beat today.
The two logical alternatives if she doesn’t fire are A Little Bit Sassy and Sweet Acclaim. A Little Bit Sassy w on the Edgemere at Churchill in May and finished first in the Grade 3 Regret there six weeks later, but was disqualified for veering out in the stretch. Those two races look better than anyone but the favorite, and she also figures to get a nice set-up today, rating just off the one-way speed of the front-runners Daring Kathy and Speed Seeker.
Sweet Acclaim was second to Daring Dancer in the Appalachian despite making her U.S. debut off a seven-month layoff and making a perhaps premature middle move. She has lost two starts since at odds-on, but is dangerous if she runs back her Keeneland effort with the benefit of some seasoning since then.