Crist: Hopeful Stakes analysis
The Hopeful Stakes on closing day at Saratoga is the first Grade 1 race of the year for 2-year-old males. It looks like a two-horse race on paper, with two other entrants offering some appeal in a seven-horse field that includes three maidens. In order of preference:
No. 6 Competitive Edge: A 10 1/4-length winner of his only start on July 26, Competitive Edge earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 90 that is five points faster than what his oppponents have mustered in 10 combined career starts. He drew perfectly on the outside, meaning he is unlikely to be drawn into an early duel. If he improves off his debut, as most second-time starters do, he’s going to be difficult to defeat.
No. 5 I Spent It is 2 for 2 and offers seasoning and professionalism as a perfectly reasonable alternative to the favorite’s brilliance. In both his July 2 debut and his Aug. 10 victory in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special – which makes him the field’s lone graded-stakes winner – he was able to stalk the
I will be using those two alone in my multi-race wagers and feel like I am about 90 percent to get through the race with no backups. Those who are spreading further are likely adding Signature Cat and Requite to the mix.
No. 4 Signature Cat set the pace and tired to be second by a length in an Aug. 14 race from which third finisher El Kabeir emerged to post a sensational victory Saturday. So perhaps Signature Cat’s effort was even stronger than it first looked. On the downside, he was caught going 5 1/2 furlongs in that race, so today he must stretch out an additional 1 1/2 furlongs while stepping up in company.
No. 3 Requite did nothing wrong winning his Aug. 9 debut but will have to improve on his winning Beyer of 77 to compete here.
The three others appear hopeless. Sharm is a D. Wayne Lukas-trained maiden who was beaten 14 lengths by Competitive Edge in his debut. His best chance at even a minor award would be a hot pace that might allow him to clunk up past tiring speed horses late. That’s still more chance than offered by the two completely overmatched entrants from the eccentric Gennadi Dorachenko stable, Maratik and Dekabrist.
