Crist: Honorable Miss analysis
The Grade 2 Honorable Miss, the Monday feature at Saratoga, is a six-furlong prelude to the seven-furlong Grade 1 Ballerina on Travers Day. This year, though, three of the leading contenders for the Ballerina instead had their prep a week earlier, when Better Lucky, Grace Hall, and My Miss Aurelia all turned up in the ungraded Shine Again Stakes because of its seven-furlong distance.
That leaves a field of just six for today’s Honorable Miss, a race whose complexion may have changed this morning when a 12-1 shot named Red Velvet was an early scratch. Red Velvet, a lightly raced speedball, seemed certain to ensure a blazing early pace that would rain mutually assured destruction on the front-runners while setting the table for the closers. With Red Velvet out, the destruction is less certain.
There still could be a hot pace. La Verdad, 9 for 11 and in front early in 10 straight, is pretty much committed to the front end after drawing post 1. Calder shipper R Free Roll has been in front early in 12 of her 16 career starts. Whereas both looked like play-againsts with Red Velvet also in the race, I now will use La Verdad. R Free Roll has never faced opposition this good and has not been out since May. If La Verdad gets the jump, she can wire the field.
If a duel does develop, the four others are strong finishers, but I prefer the consistent My Wandy’s Girl and the improving Merry Meadow to the slightly slower Calistoga and Speedinthruthecity. Also, My Wandy’s Girl and Merry Meadow have the positional speed to sit just off the duel and pounce, while the other two will probably drop farther back and try to mow them all down late.
