Crist: Hall of Fame Stakes preview
After the early scratch of the hopeless Croninthebarbarian, Chad Brown is down to a mere four entrants in Friday’s featured Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga, including the morning-line favorite (Night Prowler), the 5-1 third choice (Takeover Target), and the 6-1 fourth choice (Startup Nation). His fourth entrant, Winter Springs, is listed at 15-1, but the French colt adding Lasix for his U.S. debut could be better than all of them. If the four were coupled as an entry, it would be odds-on. Since they’re all separate betting interests, handicappers have a much tougher job.
Here’s what Brown told DRF’s David Grening about his entrants: “Takeover Target is a promising horse we’re finding out doesn’t want to go the mile and one-quarter. Startup Nation is 2 for 2 at Saratoga, so it’s hard to keep him out of the race. Night Prowler is off a layoff, and a mile and one-sixteenth seems like a good distance for him. Winter Springs makes his first start in the country, has trained well here, and you’d hate to put him right into a Grade 1.”
They’re all credible entrants but, even if coupled at odds-on, would be no cinch. This is a field in which six of the 11, including Brown’s trio with U.S. experience, have a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of between 85 and 88 on turf. A blanket finish is a strong possibility. Contrarians looking to bet against Brown’s quartet might also posit that he thinks he has better 3-year-old turfers in his own barn, since he’s running these four in a $200,000, Grade 2 race instead of the $750,000, Grade 1 Secretariat a week from Sunday. Brown has nine nominees to that race, including all of today’s entrants except Night Prowler.
:: DRF Bets Exotic Summer: Take out the takeout on Friday's pick five at Saratoga
Do you really want Night Prowler as the 3-1 favorite if he’s rated no better than the 10th-best 3-year-old turfer in his own stable? This will be his first race above the Grade 3 level. He will be backed because he’s coming off a nose defeat to Force the Pass in the Penn Mile, and Force the Pass returned to win the Grade 1, $1.25 million Belmont Derby (a race in which Takeover Target and Startup Nation ran third and fifth).
A few longshots merit a long look in addition to the aforementioned Winter Springs. High Noon Rider (12-1) was beaten just a length by Night Prowler in the Penn Mile. Vision Perfect (12-1) looks a little light on the Beyers until you remember that those figures were earned as a 2-year-old, and 3-year-olds can jump up five to 10 Beyer points with routine improvement from 2 to 3.
