Crist: Fourstardave Analysis

Wise Dan, the reigning two-time Horse of the Year, is not in this year’s Fourstardave Handicap but his presence still seems strong: He won the race the last two years and two of today’s morning-line favorites are perhaps best known for their efforts against him: Silver Max, the 9-5 favorite, is the last horse to have beaten Wise Dan, when he scored by a length and a half in the Shadwell Mile last October; Seek Again missed beating Wise Dan by just a head in the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.

Silver Max is the favorite today time and deserves to be. He is making his second start off an eight-month layoff after returning with a front-running score in the G2 Firecracker. He has won 10 of 18 career grass starts and the one-mile distance looks ideal. The major pitfall to avoid will be getting hooked into an early speed duel with Sayaad, another front-runner, who does not appear to be good enough to win the race but could influence the early going.

Seek Again has won at distances from seven to 10 furlongs, but it’s still not clear whether he’s a miler or better going longer. That he was sent here instead of next Saturday’s Arlington Million suggests his connections are exploring the miler route. He may well be the second-best horse in the race, but the distance is still a question.

Jack Milton is the third and final reasonable win candidate in the field, and could offer some value as the third choice in the 3-1/7-2 neighborhood. He has improved sharply as a 4-year-old. Two starts back he won the Poker by daylight, and last time out he was closing strongly in the G1 Shoemaker Mile. Like Seek Again, he may need some help up front to aid his late run.