Crist: Coaching Club American Oaks analysis
This year’s edition of the Coaching Club American Oaks has attracted one of the weakest fields in the history of the race and is a Grade 1 event in name only.
Five of the six 3-year-old fillies are seeking their first graded-stakes victory. The sixth, the favored Stopchargingmaria, has won three such events – the Grade 3 Tempted and Grade 2 Demoiselle at 2, and the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan last time out. Does that give the favorite an insurmountable class edge in a race that has only one other stakes winner of any kind?
Not necessarily because Unbridled Forever has been running well enough this year to be a graded stakes winner. She has been third in all three of her starts as a 3-year-old but has been running against much tougher fields than Stopchargingmaria has. She twice faced Untapable, the untouchable division leader, and was a distant third to her in both the Fair Grounds Oaks and Kentucky Oaks. In defeat, however, she ran better Beyer Speed Figures than Stopchargingmaria has turned in while winning four of her eight starts. Last time out, Unbridled Forever finished third behind Sweet Reason in the Grade 1 Acorn, but that one-turn mile is not her best distance, and she should move forward today going longer around two turns.
Their four opponents are a combined 0 for 11 in stakes racing, and it is impossible to endorse them against the two favorites. They may well have been hustled into this spot to fill out the field, lured by the possibility of a shot at Grade 1 black type they may never get so easily again. Courageous Jill and America have had numerous chances at fillies of this caliber and come up short. Miss Besilu might improve making her second start off a layoff, but it’s still unclear whether she is a stakes-caliber filly on dirt.
If you insist on being adventurous, you could take the 8-1 morning-line odds on Taketheodds. With only four career starts, she may have the most upside, and this will be her first start around two turns. She runs as if she may like that.