Crist: Alabama Stakes preview

Today’s featured Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga brings together the winners of the five most prestigious Grade 1 races for 3-year-old dirt fillies that have been run this year – Curalina (Acorn, Coaching Club American Oaks), Lovely Maria (Ashland, Kentucky Oaks), and Include Betty (Mother Goose), as well as graded stakes winner I’m a Chatterbox, who finished first in the CCA Oaks but was disqualified and placed second for bothering Curalina nearing the wire. Three intriguing but probably overmatched maiden/allowance winners complete the field of seven.

The dual Grade 1 winners Curalina or Lovely Maria would emerge from the race as the clear leader of the 3-year-old filly division with a victory today. Curalina is a deserving favorite, and it’s hard to find any fault with her. She handled the jump from a mile in the Acorn to nine furlongs in the CCA Oaks and had to move earlier than she might have preferred in order to go after a loose I’m a Chatterbox. An extra furlong should only put her farther in front of that rival today.

If the race is bet in accordance with the morning line, I’m a Chatterbox strikes me as an underlay at 5-2, while fellow Larry Jones trainee Lovely Maria might be a relative bargain at 5-1. If Lovely Maria had won her prep for this at Delaware instead of running a dull fifth as the 3-10 favorite, she would be a strong second choice in here, so if you can forgive that race, you’re getting twice the price on her today than you otherwise would have. Jones said she may have been sick that day – he said a virus was going through his barn at Delaware – and that she has trained much better since then.

The 10-furlong distance of the Alabama is often key to the result, and it’s fair to question whether an extra furlong is going to help either Lovely Maria (by the sprinter Majesticperfection) or I’m a Chatterbox (by Munnings). Include Betty, however, should thrive at the route. The daughter of Include is always gaining late and could launch an upset if something goes awry with Curalina and the Jones fillies don’t like the 10th furlong.

The three outsiders don’t appear good enough to win, but one of them probably will affect how the race is run: Embellish the Lace, who won two starts by a combined 24 lengths but then stopped badly while making her stakes debut in the Mother Goose. She looks like the clear early speed, but it’s hard to think she can carry it all the way against this strong a field going 10 furlongs.

Danette was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths in the CCA Oaks but was fourth-best behind three of today’s rivals, and it’s hard to think she’ll improve off that in her 15th career start. Sweetgrass was unable to prevail in either the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks or the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks, making her an unlikely Grade 1 winner against the division’s best today.