Crist: Adirondack analysis

Four of the seven 2-year-old fillies in Sunday’s Grade 2 Adirondack won their last (in most cases only) start with a Beyer Speed Figure of between 80 and 85, good enough to win the race in seven of the last 10 years. Thus the question of the race may not be one of sheer talent, as all four are good enough, but whether those good efforts were achieved under conditions likely or unlikely to be repeated today.

For example, Wonder Again will be favored or close to it off a debut that looks almost incredible on paper – rallying from eight lengths back to win a stakes race by 14 1/2 lengths. Enthusiasm for that effort should probably be tempered by the fact that the stakes race in question was a five-filly race restricted to New York-breds in which the runner-up’s three career starts have earned Beyers of 34, 43, and 20.

Similarly, morning line 7-2 Cavorting couldn’t have looked much better winning her July 3 debut at Belmont by 11 lengths, but it was a field of just four, and the three who faced her may or may not have any ability.

Then there’s Vivian Da Bling, a front-winning winner in two daylight romps at Lone Star, earning Beyers of 81 and 85, including a $98,000 stakes race. However, that stakes was restricted to graduates of a particular Texas auction.

These are all talented fillies, but today, I will side with the fourth member of the 80-plus quartet, Angela Renee. Her winning debut June 27 has looked only better and better as runner-up Sunday Sonnet and fifth-place finisher Million Dollar Woman have both returned to win impressively. So even though Wonder Gal and Vivian Da Bling won stakes races, Angela Renee may have beaten a much better field. Her debut triumph also came with a sensible, stalking trip, a repeat of which might serve her well in today’s speed-packed field.